688
FXUS64 KMAF 171120
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For today, not much has changed. Ridging will continue, with its
northwest portion over central New Mexico and closer than yesterday
keeping mid-levels dry and maintaining large-scale subsidence. This
will keep rain chances low this afternoon. However, there are
indications on shortwave and water vapor satellite imagery of
convectively induced outflow and clouds to the north making their
way south across the area. This could bring an increased chance
of showers and storms tomorrow later in the afternoon and evening.
Did not adjust PoPs, but it is possible that an earlier than
expected passage of convectively induced boundaries could increase
PoPs over northern portion of the area from SE NM into the
northern and central Permian Basin. Otherwise, highest rain
chances seem to hold off until Thursday evening.

Highs today will again rise into the 90s for most, with triple
digits along the Pecos River, Reeves County plains, Stockton
Plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along Rio Grande. Lows
tonight fall into the 70s and above aside from 60s over northern
Lea county and Permian Basin, and higher elevations of Guadalupes
and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Highs tomorrow will mark
the start of a downward trend into this weekend, with highs only
rising into the 80s over northern Lea County and Permian Basin as
well as the higher elevations of the Guadalupes into the Davis
Mountains and lower Trans Pecos, with triple digits confined to
along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The extended still appears active with several chances for rain and
temperatures mostly below normal. Overall, the upper pattern over
the next week will consist of an upper ridge over the Great Basin or
vicinity with shortwaves diving south across the Plains within a
deep trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will
send periodic cold fronts into the region along with a continued
chance for rain and storms. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding
timing of these front as it will greatly depend on upstream
convection.

Following the cold front Thursday, return flow will commence Friday.
Much of the area should see a dry day except for the higher terrain
where upslope, easterly flow will help generate showers and storms.
Temperatures warm slightly given less storm coverage, but look to
remain under 100 degrees. Another shortwave and cold front are in
the offing for this weekend with another round of showers and
storms. This front will send temperatures below normal by Sunday
with highs generally in the 80s across the area. We keep this
pattern into much of next week although it`s tough to nail down a
particular front and day with better convective coverage this far
out. Because of this, we will continue with at least isolated PoPs
each period and fine-tune the forecast as we get closer to each
event. This sure beats the typical July weather we are used to!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs continue throughout TAF period. Gusty winds
expected by 20Z Wednesday before decreasing from 04Z-08Z Thursday.
Increased high clouds move in from the north after 00Z Thursday,
and cannot rule out showers and storms, especially for terminals
over SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  73  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                 99  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  30
Dryden                   99  74  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton            99  73  96  72 /  10  10  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           91  68  85  67 /  10  10  40  30
Hobbs                    97  70  90  69 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                    92  64  90  64 /  20  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  10
Odessa                   98  74  92  72 /  10  20  30  10
Wink                    101  75  95  74 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...94