546
FXUS64 KMAF 171736
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Surface observations reveal that convective outflow from previous
storms in the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma last night has pushed to
just north of Lubbock as of 15:45Z this morning. High resolution
guidance takes this boundary into northern Lea County and into the
north-northeastern Permian Basin late this afternoon, serving as
a focal point for convective development later today. In addition
to the typical afternoon storms across the Davis Mountains, have
increased PoPs across the northern and eastern Permian Basin to
reflect the consistent storm development seen across the CAMs.
While severe weather isn`t really expected with any of these
storms, they will surely bring the chance for strong, gusty winds,
as well as a brief downpour in the direct path of any storms.
While the outflow will likely end up pushing all the way towards
the Pecos overnight, a bulk of the shower/storm activity remains
confined to the northern and eastern Permian Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For today, not much has changed. Ridging will continue, with its
northwest portion over central New Mexico and closer than yesterday
keeping mid-levels dry and maintaining large-scale subsidence. This
will keep rain chances low this afternoon. However, there are
indications on shortwave and water vapor satellite imagery of
convectively induced outflow and clouds to the north making their
way south across the area. This could bring an increased chance
of showers and storms tomorrow later in the afternoon and evening.
Did not adjust PoPs, but it is possible that an earlier than
expected passage of convectively induced boundaries could increase
PoPs over northern portion of the area from SE NM into the
northern and central Permian Basin. Otherwise, highest rain
chances seem to hold off until Thursday evening.

Highs today will again rise into the 90s for most, with triple
digits along the Pecos River, Reeves County plains, Stockton
Plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along Rio Grande. Lows
tonight fall into the 70s and above aside from 60s over northern
Lea county and Permian Basin, and higher elevations of Guadalupes
and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Highs tomorrow will mark
the start of a downward trend into this weekend, with highs only
rising into the 80s over northern Lea County and Permian Basin as
well as the higher elevations of the Guadalupes into the Davis
Mountains and lower Trans Pecos, with triple digits confined to
along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The extended still appears active with several chances for rain and
temperatures mostly below normal. Overall, the upper pattern over
the next week will consist of an upper ridge over the Great Basin or
vicinity with shortwaves diving south across the Plains within a
deep trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will
send periodic cold fronts into the region along with a continued
chance for rain and storms. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding
timing of these front as it will greatly depend on upstream
convection.

Following the cold front Thursday, return flow will commence Friday.
Much of the area should see a dry day except for the higher terrain
where upslope, easterly flow will help generate showers and storms.
Temperatures warm slightly given less storm coverage, but look to
remain under 100 degrees. Another shortwave and cold front are in
the offing for this weekend with another round of showers and
storms. This front will send temperatures below normal by Sunday
with highs generally in the 80s across the area. We keep this
pattern into much of next week although it`s tough to nail down a
particular front and day with better convective coverage this far
out. Because of this, we will continue with at least isolated PoPs
each period and fine-tune the forecast as we get closer to each
event. This sure beats the typical July weather we are used to!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds remain steady out of the
east-southeast through the afternoon. An old outflow boundary will
serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development across the
northern/eastern Permian Basin this afternoon. While direct
impacts to terminals isn`t generally expected, a stray storm or
two may draw near HOB. Otherwise, this outflow will continue to
surge southwestward this evening, bringing a east-northeasterly
wind shift. Some gusty winds may briefly accompany this boundary
passage, but MAF will likely see the strongest winds out of all
the terminals given the closer proximity to the expected storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  93  72  96 /  20  20  10  20
Carlsbad                 73  93  72  95 /  20  30  30  30
Dryden                   74  97  74  96 /   0  20  10  20
Fort Stockton            73  96  72  96 /  10  40  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           68  85  67  86 /  10  40  30  40
Hobbs                    70  90  69  92 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                    64  90  64  89 /   0  30  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     73  93  72  93 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                   74  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                     75  95  74  96 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16