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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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224 FXUS64 KMAF 202049 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A weak upper level disturbance and associated cold front, along with daytime heating are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. A few gusts have been surprisingly strong despite the fact that soundings indicate that conditions are not favorable for strong winds due to abundant low level moisture. This activity will continue through this afternoon and dissipate overnight as the loss of daytime heating helps stabilize the atmosphere. The front gets hung up in the Permian Basin overnight as a stronger upper disturbance moves southeast across New Mexico. This second disturbance will ultimately push the front south through the area, but not before causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to form again tomorrow into tomorrow night. Summertime convection tends to be scattered with hit and miss rainfall so QPF is difficult to forecast; however, PWATs are very high so any storms will be able to produce rainfall amounts in excess of an inch causing local flash flooding issues. Flooding should not be widespread enough to warrant a watch but anyone near flood prone areas should pay close attention. This includes the Davis and Guadalupe mountains where water can drain well away from the parent thunderstorm causing flooding well downstream. All of the above elements causing rainfall tomorrow will also keep highs well below normal with temperatures struggling to reach 90 degrees for many locations. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A robust shortwave is set to glide over the Texas Panhandle through the long-wave troughing across the central US for Monday, setting the stage for yet another day of worthwhile rain/storm chances across the region. This feature will make convective temperature easy to achieve and scattered thunderstorms are possible for nearly everyone but the positioning of the main stalled frontal boundary in addition to lingering outflow boundaries from Sunday`s storms/convection will likely dictate where more prominent complexes of storms will setup. While the confidence in widespread storms is still exceptionally high, given it will still be of the convective variety means they will be generally hit-or-miss storms rather than a blanket of rainfall for the area. The lower-resolution guidance still influencing the NBM is putting out PoPs that feels way too high for the type of storms expected, and have undercut PoPs for Monday as a result. Regardless, PoPs are 60-70+ percent areawide, which is still really good rain chances but don`t be surprised for some spots to get missed as a whole. Another weak shortwave passes through on Tuesday as the long-wave trough starts to lift northeastward into the Mississippi Valley. One last day of "wetter than normal" weather is expected, though a bulk of the storm activity is expected to align with the remnant stationary front for the I-10 corridor and Big Bend. For Wednesday- Friday the upper ridge currently across the Western US wiggles back toward the Four Corners, generally limiting storm coverage to the more "typical" spots, the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and western higher terrain. Lingering troughing across south-central Texas could support afternoon storm coverage across the far eastern Permian Basin each afternoon as well. With all of the storm chances/outflow and cloud coverage, temperatures throughout the entire long term remain below average and quite pleasant for late July. With the most storm coverage, Monday looks to be the coolest day in the 70s and 80s (and 90s for the Rio Grande). Gradual moderation comes Tuesday into Wednesday but high temperatures generally top out in the 80s to low 90s for the remainder of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 There isn`t much on radar right now, but models are showing TS developing in the Permian Basin around 21-22Z. Any site could be affected but MAF has the highest chance and VCTS has been added there. TS will be in the local area of all TAFs affecting general aviation ops in particular. Storms dissipate after 00Z but more may form tomorrow. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 90 70 80 / 40 50 50 70 Carlsbad 72 86 68 80 / 40 70 80 60 Dryden 74 97 72 89 / 0 30 20 50 Fort Stockton 73 92 70 83 / 10 50 40 70 Guadalupe Pass 67 79 62 74 / 30 70 80 60 Hobbs 68 86 65 78 / 50 60 80 70 Marfa 65 87 65 80 / 10 50 40 80 Midland Intl Airport 72 88 69 79 / 30 60 60 60 Odessa 73 88 70 78 / 20 60 60 60 Wink 74 91 71 81 / 20 50 70 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10