359
FXUS64 KMAF 180516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

We`re continuing to monitor a convectively modified cold front
that has surged southward into northern Lea through the
northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon. We are already seeing
thunderstorm development along this boundary, with scattered
thunderstorms possible for the central and northern/eastern
Permian Basin through the remainder of the afternoon in addition
to the typical diurnally driven storms found across the Davis
Mountains. The ongoing and continued storm activity will continue
progressing the cold front southwestward towards the Pecos Valley
this afternoon and evening, with a stray shower or two possible as
the boundary pushes along. While most of today`s precipitation is
driven by mesoscale features, it is still aided by slightly
decreased synoptic subsidence as the upper ridge that has been in
control the last few days has nudged westward closer to the AZ/NM
border. This has also allowed high temperatures to nudge down a
degree or two compared to yesterday. For those in the
northern/eastern Permian Basin already behind the front, the
temperatures are already falling and the high temperatures have
only reached the low to mid 90s.

Moving into early tomorrow, high resolution model guidance is
consistent that a separate outflow boundary will come in behind our
cold/stalled front and help initiate more showers and thunderstorms
in the south central Permian Basin around 12-14z Thursday morning.
Between the outflow from these storms, the lingering stalled front
from today, a further westward displaced ridge, and diurnal heating,
more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon generally along/west of the Pecos River and western high
terrain. Behind the front and with the added effect of clouds and
precipitation, high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
today, only topping out in the low 90s for most and the upper 80s
for the higher elevations.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Not much has changed over the past 24 hours.  Ensemble guidance and
cluster analyses of same show the same pattern setup, with a large
highly amped up ridge extending from the Great Basin north to just
about the Arctic, and long wave troughs/lows off the Canadian
Pacific coast and from Hudson Bay/QB southwestward to the southern
High Plains. This setup will favor cooler than normal (by as much as
5-10 degrees) temperatures Sunday through next Wednesday along with
a good (> 50% chance) of rain and thunderstorms just about anywhere.
As always, the devil is in the details. Precipitable water values
will climb to the 75th to 90th percentile range by Sunday, and
with another boundary progged to enter west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico sometime Sunday night/Monday morning, the stage will
be set for the potential for highly-localized heavy rainfall, with
the best chances (> 70%) over the mountains and adjacent plains.
However, urban areas may be impacted as well, affecting the Monday
morning commute for some.

Until then, expect the best chances for rain Saturday and Sunday
over the mountains and adjacent terrain. Monday could be a wet day
for many, but some may miss out on some badly-needed precipitation.
Would like to see a dent made in the drought conditions across
southeastern New Mexico, but the best chances for rain will be from
the Guadalupes north across the southern Sacramento Mountains. While
overall QPF will be in the 0.50" to 1.25" range, some areas might
see a couple of inches (or more) from localized downpours while
others might only pick up a few tenths. Nevertheless, we`ll take
nature`s air conditioning in the latter half of July! -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period, with light
easterly winds and high clouds likely over all terminals. Left out
mention of showers and storms in TAFs, but showers and storms are
possible at terminals over the Permian Basin and SE NM plains into
the Davis Mountains from 18Z Thursday to 00Z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  71  97  73 /  30  10  20   0
Carlsbad                 92  71  95  73 /  50  20  30  20
Dryden                   96  73  98  74 /  30  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            93  73  96  73 /  50  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           84  67  86  69 /  50  30  40  20
Hobbs                    89  69  93  70 /  40  20  20  20
Marfa                    88  64  88  64 /  60  10  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     91  71  95  74 /  30  10  20  10
Odessa                   91  73  95  74 /  40  10  20  10
Wink                     93  74  97  75 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...94