499
FXUS64 KMAF 181949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the day along
and south of a convectively reinforced boundary, currently located
south and west of the Pecos River. These storms have remained sub-
severe, though gusty winds and small hail are possible, along with
locally heavy rain and perhaps blowing dust, particularly near open
fields and work sites. Additional storms are starting to develop
over eastern New Mexico, with additional development possible into
this evening as storms move off of the higher terrain. Again, gusty
winds, hail, and lightning will be possible. Otherwise, a "cool" day
is underway, with most locations in the middle 80s to lower 90s this
afternoon, save for the Big Bend and locations along the Rio Grande
where middle to upper 90s are more prevalent.

High-resolution guidance is in agreement regarding a gradual
weakening trend of convection after sunset, though showers and
storms may linger over portions of Southeast New Mexico, dependent
on convective trends this afternoon and early evening. Lows tonight
will be fairly close to normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s for
most,given lingering cloud cover and continued easterly to
southeasterly surface flow. On Friday, temperatures are progged to
tick up a few degrees over this afternoon`s highs, topping out in
the lower to middle 90s across the plains, upper 80s in the
mountains, and lower 100s along the Rio Grande Valley. Given high
pressure remaining anchored over the Four Corners Region and a
trough over the east, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
possible, especially along and west of the Pecos River in closer
proximity of the higher terrain, though a few storms could develop
eastward into the Permian Basin. Much of the activity will be
dependent on residual boundaries from prior convection, and
potential propagation along outflow boundaries once convection is
underway. Fortunately, severe weather is not expected, with locally
heavy rain the main concern. Similar to today, storms should
diminish through late evening with the loss of heating, with lows
once again in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

We`re continuing to monitor a convectively modified cold front that
has surged southward into northern Lea through the northeastern
Permian Basin this afternoon. We are already seeing thunderstorm
development along this boundary, with scattered thunderstorms
possible for the central and northern/eastern Permian Basin through
the remainder of the afternoon in addition to the typical diurnally
driven storms found across the Davis Mountains. The ongoing and
continued storm activity will continue progressing the cold front
southwestward towards the Pecos Valley this afternoon and evening,
with a stray shower or two possible as the boundary pushes along.
While most of today`s precipitation is driven by mesoscale features,
it is still aided by slightly decreased synoptic subsidence as the
upper ridge that has been in control the last few days has nudged
westward closer to the AZ/NM border. This has also allowed high
temperatures to nudge down a degree or two compared to yesterday.
For those in the northern/eastern Permian Basin already behind the
front, the temperatures are already falling and the high
temperatures have only reached the low to mid 90s.

Moving into early tomorrow, high resolution model guidance is
consistent that a separate outflow boundary will come in behind our
cold/stalled front and help initiate more showers and thunderstorms
in the south central Permian Basin around 12-14z Thursday morning.
Between the outflow from these storms, the lingering stalled front
from today, a further westward displaced ridge, and diurnal heating,
more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon generally along/west of the Pecos River and western high
terrain. Behind the front and with the added effect of clouds and
precipitation, high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
today, only topping out in the low 90s for most and the upper 80s
for the higher elevations.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

At issuance, showers and thunderstorms have developed in the
vicinity of KCNM, and are expected to persist on at least an
intermittent basis through the afternoon. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms are currently to the south of TAF sites, though will
have to monitor FST and INK for potential impacts, including brief
MVFR conditions in heavy rain and/or blowing dust. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail, with winds remaining generally east-
southeasterly for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  73  95 /   0  10   0  40
Carlsbad                 72  95  73  92 /  20  30  10  70
Dryden                   74  98  74  99 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            72  96  74  98 /  10  20   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           67  86  69  85 /  30  40  20  70
Hobbs                    68  93  70  90 /  10  20  10  60
Marfa                    64  88  64  90 /  30  40   0  60
Midland Intl Airport     71  95  73  95 /   0  10   0  40
Odessa                   72  94  74  95 /   0  10   0  40
Wink                     74  97  75  97 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84