651
FXUS64 KMAF 190434
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the day along
and south of a convectively reinforced boundary, currently located
south and west of the Pecos River. These storms have remained
sub-severe, though gusty winds and small hail are possible, along
with locally heavy rain and perhaps blowing dust, particularly
near open fields and work sites. Additional storms are starting to
develop over eastern New Mexico, with additional development
possible into this evening as storms move off of the higher
terrain. Again, gusty winds, hail, and lightning will be possible.
Otherwise, a "cool" day is underway, with most locations in the
middle 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, save for the Big Bend and
locations along the Rio Grande where middle to upper 90s are more
prevalent.

High-resolution guidance is in agreement regarding a gradual
weakening trend of convection after sunset, though showers and
storms may linger over portions of Southeast New Mexico, dependent
on convective trends this afternoon and early evening. Lows
tonight will be fairly close to normal in the upper 60s and lower
70s for most,given lingering cloud cover and continued easterly to
southeasterly surface flow. On Friday, temperatures are progged
to tick up a few degrees over this afternoon`s highs, topping out
in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, upper 80s in the
mountains, and lower 100s along the Rio Grande Valley. Given high
pressure remaining anchored over the Four Corners Region and a
trough over the east, another round of showers and thunderstorms
is possible, especially along and west of the Pecos River in
closer proximity of the higher terrain, though a few storms could
develop eastward into the Permian Basin. Much of the activity will
be dependent on residual boundaries from prior convection, and
potential propagation along outflow boundaries once convection is
underway. Fortunately, severe weather is not expected, with
locally heavy rain the main concern. Similar to today, storms
should diminish through late evening with the loss of heating,
with lows once again in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

We`re continuing to monitor a convectively modified cold front that
has surged southward into northern Lea through the northeastern
Permian Basin this afternoon. We are already seeing thunderstorm
development along this boundary, with scattered thunderstorms
possible for the central and northern/eastern Permian Basin through
the remainder of the afternoon in addition to the typical diurnally
driven storms found across the Davis Mountains. The ongoing and
continued storm activity will continue progressing the cold front
southwestward towards the Pecos Valley this afternoon and evening,
with a stray shower or two possible as the boundary pushes along.
While most of today`s precipitation is driven by mesoscale features,
it is still aided by slightly decreased synoptic subsidence as the
upper ridge that has been in control the last few days has nudged
westward closer to the AZ/NM border. This has also allowed high
temperatures to nudge down a degree or two compared to yesterday.
For those in the northern/eastern Permian Basin already behind the
front, the temperatures are already falling and the high
temperatures have only reached the low to mid 90s.

Moving into early tomorrow, high resolution model guidance is
consistent that a separate outflow boundary will come in behind our
cold/stalled front and help initiate more showers and thunderstorms
in the south central Permian Basin around 12-14z Thursday morning.
Between the outflow from these storms, the lingering stalled front
from today, a further westward displaced ridge, and diurnal heating,
more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon generally along/west of the Pecos River and western high
terrain. Behind the front and with the added effect of clouds and
precipitation, high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
today, only topping out in the low 90s for most and the upper 80s
for the higher elevations.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning,
w/bases 5-7 kft AGL. Convection will be possible, mainly
KCNM/KPEQ, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  73  97 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                 72  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  50
Dryden                   73  97  73  99 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            71  96  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           67  86  69  87 /  30  30  20  60
Hobbs                    68  94  70  93 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                    64  89  64  91 /  30  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     71  94  73  96 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                   72  94  74  96 /   0  10   0  20
Wink                     73  97  74  98 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44