490
FXUS64 KMAF 202337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A weak upper level disturbance and associated cold front, along with
daytime heating are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon. A few gusts have been surprisingly strong
despite the fact that soundings indicate that conditions are not
favorable for strong winds due to abundant low level moisture.
This activity will continue through this afternoon and dissipate
overnight as the loss of daytime heating helps stabilize the
atmosphere.

The front gets hung up in the Permian Basin overnight as a stronger
upper disturbance moves southeast across New Mexico. This second
disturbance will ultimately push the front south through the
area, but not before causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
to form again tomorrow into tomorrow night. Summertime convection
tends to be scattered with hit and miss rainfall so QPF is
difficult to forecast; however, PWATs are very high so any storms
will be able to produce rainfall amounts in excess of an inch
causing local flash flooding issues. Flooding should not be
widespread enough to warrant a watch but anyone near flood prone
areas should pay close attention. This includes the Davis and
Guadalupe mountains where water can drain well away from the
parent thunderstorm causing flooding well downstream. All of the
above elements causing rainfall tomorrow will also keep highs well
below normal with temperatures struggling to reach 90 degrees for
many locations.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A robust shortwave is set to glide over the Texas Panhandle through
the long-wave troughing across the central US for Monday, setting
the stage for yet another day of worthwhile rain/storm chances
across the region. This feature will make convective temperature
easy to achieve and scattered thunderstorms are possible for nearly
everyone but the positioning of the main stalled frontal boundary in
addition to lingering outflow boundaries from Sunday`s
storms/convection will likely dictate where more prominent complexes
of storms will setup. While the confidence in widespread storms is
still exceptionally high, given it will still be of the convective
variety means they will be generally hit-or-miss storms rather than
a blanket of rainfall for the area. The lower-resolution guidance
still influencing the NBM is putting out PoPs that feels way too
high for the type of storms expected, and have undercut PoPs for
Monday as a result. Regardless, PoPs are 60-70+ percent areawide,
which is still really good rain chances but don`t be surprised for
some spots to get missed as a whole.

Another weak shortwave passes through on Tuesday as the long-wave
trough starts to lift northeastward into the Mississippi Valley. One
last day of "wetter than normal" weather is expected, though a bulk
of the storm activity is expected to align with the remnant
stationary front for the I-10 corridor and Big Bend. For Wednesday-
Friday the upper ridge currently across the Western US wiggles back
toward the Four Corners, generally limiting storm coverage to the
more "typical" spots, the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and western
higher terrain. Lingering troughing across south-central Texas could
support afternoon storm coverage across the far eastern Permian
Basin each afternoon as well.

With all of the storm chances/outflow and cloud coverage,
temperatures throughout the entire long term remain below average
and quite pleasant for late July. With the most storm coverage,
Monday looks to be the coolest day in the 70s and 80s (and 90s for
the Rio Grande). Gradual moderation comes Tuesday into Wednesday but
high temperatures generally top out in the 80s to low 90s for the
remainder of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Scattered TS is diminishing this evening near the TAF sites. More
is expected after 18Z Sunday which could affect any of the TAF
sites, but confidence isn`t high enough to include at this time.
Southeast winds will become northeasterly after 06Z with the
passage of a weak cold front.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  90  70  80 /  40  50  50  70
Carlsbad                 72  86  68  80 /  40  70  80  60
Dryden                   74  97  72  89 /   0  30  20  50
Fort Stockton            73  92  70  83 /  10  50  40  70
Guadalupe Pass           67  79  62  74 /  30  70  80  60
Hobbs                    68  86  65  78 /  50  60  80  70
Marfa                    65  87  65  80 /  10  50  40  80
Midland Intl Airport     72  88  69  79 /  30  60  60  60
Odessa                   73  88  70  78 /  20  60  60  60
Wink                     74  91  71  81 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10