987
FXUS64 KMAF 161738
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A quiet pattern with ridging over the Four Corners region continues.
Subsidence associated with the ridge will keep cloud cover low,
allowing temperatures to warm into the 90s today, with triple digits
along the Pecos River over the Reeves County plains and Stockton
plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande. Unlike
previous days, a tongue of dry air over West Texas that is visible
in water vapor satellite imagery will reduce rain chances even over
western higher terrain. As a result of lower cloud cover and rain
chances and a stronger low level thermal ridge today, highs will be
a few degrees above average for mid July. We don`t quite reach
Heat Advisory criteria but come close in the Low Rolling Plains
today. Tonight under light winds southeast winds, lows will fall
into the 70s or above, 60s in northern Lea County, Guadalupes and
Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos.

Ridging over the Four Corners doesn`t move much tomorrow, so we are
expecting similar conditions to today, with 90s and triple digits
along the Pecos River and Rio Grande and over the eastern Permian
Basin. Like today, heat risk may be marginal enough and limited in
extent over the Western Low Rolling Plains tomorrow to preclude
issuance of any Heat Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

After a few hot days some big changes are on the way, especially if
you like below normal temperatures and rain in July! Upper ridging
centered to our west will shift slightly allowing for northerly flow
to develop aloft. This flow regime will allow a cold front to move
into the region late Wednesday or early Thursday. This front will
likely be convectively influenced from storms over the TX PH
Wednesday afternoon. While most models indicate a slower front with
better PoPs on Thursday, recent experience has shown convection to
our north will likely send outflow and storms south into our region
as early as Wednesday night/Thursday morning. If this occurs, the
front could end up further south Thursday afternoon leaving much of
the Permian Basin free of rain. We will know more as we get into the
range of hi-resolution models. Temperatures will fall below normal
with highs generally in the upper 80s and low 90s. Return flow is
expected Friday allowing temperatures to return to normal. The best
rain chances will shift into the higher terrain amid upslope,
moist flow.

The upper ridge shifts further west into the Great Basin this
weekend allowing a shortwave to dive south across the Plains. This
will allow another rare July cold front to move into the region
bringing our next best chance for widespread rain. This pattern is
likely to last into next week helping to keep rain chances in the
forecast and temperatures generally below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds remain steady out of the
south-southeast through this afternoon and this evening. Wind
speeds increase some this evening into the early overnight hours
with a modest LLJ. While occasional gusts are possible, they will
generally remain under 25kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 100  74  93 /   0  10  10  40
Carlsbad                 73 100  73  92 /   0  20  30  30
Dryden                   73  99  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            73 100  73  95 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           70  91  68  85 /   0  20  20  30
Hobbs                    71  97  70  89 /   0  10  30  40
Marfa                    63  92  64  90 /  20  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     74  98  74  92 /   0  10  10  40
Odessa                   75  98  74  92 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                     76 101  76  93 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16