896
FXUS64 KMAF 162320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

To sum up the short term: new day, same story. We`re still under the
influence of an upper ridge, nw center across central New Mexico.
This somewhat closer presence of this feature will allow for high
temperatures to land a touch higher than they were yesterday,
topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. Between subsidence from
the ridge and plenty of mid level dry air wrapping in on the south
side of the ridge, isolated to scattered convection is once again
limited to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

Heading into tomorrow, the ridge meanders westward back closer to
the Four Corners. A weak shortwave glides along the eastern
periphery of the ridge tomorrow morning into the Red River valley.
This helps push a cold front through the Panhandle tomorrow
afternoon, which could nose into the Permian Basin late in the
afternoon or early evening hours. While the typical diurnally-driven
storms are possible in and around the Davis Mountains, additional
thunderstorm development is possible along the front for the
northern Permian Basin into northern Lea County. Scattered
thunderstorms could leak into portions of the central Permian Basin
around sunset before dying off. High temperatures will largely be
similar to todays, albeit a tad cooler with a more displaced ridge.
Should the front arrive somewhat sooner than expected and in/around
areas of precipitation, highs could be undercut by 5-10 degrees
compared to today.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The long-awaited pattern shift will take place in the long term
portion of this forecast as the large and highly-amplified Four
Corners high extends a ridge almost to the Arctic and deep long
waves/lows are located off the Pacific Northwest coast and over
eastern Canada. Ensemble model guidance has been consistent in
migrating the ridging a bit westward and keeping a trough/weakness
in the upper level flow extending southwest from the eastern
Canadian provinces to the southern Plains. Short wave troughs riding
over the ridge and across the northeastern states will send weak
cold fronts, likely augmented by convective outflows, across west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico Thursday morning and again
sometime Sunday night/Monday morning.

Ensemble guidance is also consistent in increasing precipitable
water values to near the 90% percentile across the region Thursday
and again on Sunday.  So what does all this mean?  Well, for
starters, someone will get rain. And probably somebody won`t, or at
least not as much. While there`s a high (> 70% probability)
likelihood of precipitation over the Thursday to next Wednesday time
period, the best chances for rain will occur over the mountains and
adjacent plains, with a somewhat slighter chance over the
northeastern Permian Basin closer to stronger forcing due to the
fronts.  Now, while the amount of rain forecast across west Texas
and southeastern New Mexico indicates that nearly everyone will see
three quarters of an inch or better (in excess of one inch over the
mountains), that`s just not a likely scenario. This time of year,
convective, not stratiform, rainfall patterns dominate, and while
your neighbor might pick up a quick inch and a half, you might only
see a quarter inch or less. Such is the nature of convective cells
in a diurnally-driven moist and unstable environment.

Now, we`re more confident (> 80% probability) in cooler than normal
temperatures through the middle of next week, and some model
guidance suggests that this trend will continue beyond that. In any
event, a cooling trend is noted in the long term portion of this
forecast, with highs Thursday ranging from the mid 80s at higher
elevations of the mountains to near 106 at Rio Grande Village, then
falling into the 80s and 90s by Sunday and staying pretty much there
through Wednesday. Low temperatures will be modulated a bit by
clouds and moisture, with lows ranging from the mid 50s at higher
elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande.
For the latter half of July, we`ll take this! Hopefully, the rains
will make a dent in the drought across southeastern New Mexico. It`s
just hard to say at the moment this far out the where and when that
might occur. Such is uncertainty. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions and southeast winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 100  74  93 /   0  20  20  40
Carlsbad                 73 100  73  92 /   0  10  20  30
Dryden                   73  99  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            73  99  72  95 /   0  10   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           71  91  68  85 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    71  97  70  89 /   0  10  20  40
Marfa                    64  92  64  90 /  10  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     73  98  73  92 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                   74  98  74  92 /   0  10  20  30
Wink                     76 101  75  93 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...91