037
FXUS64 KMAF 111710
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper
level ridging building over the Four Corners. The ridge is still
displaced enough to keep temperatures near normal, and consistent
with what we`ve seen the last few days: most spots topping out in
the mid to upper 90s both today and Friday afternoons. As with
temperatures, the subsidence isn`t quite strong enough to limit
diurnally-driven storms, with the bona fide chances limited to the
Davis Mountains and Big Bend this afternoon. A stray shower or
two is possible across the Permian Basin as well, but will be
exceptionally short lived and isolated. With a nearly identical
synoptic setup for Friday, low afternoon storm chances are present
once again for the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Nothing has changed in the extended period. High pressure over the
western United States will remain stationary keeping our area
under northeasterly flow aloft, southeasterly flow at the surface.
Subsidence from the high will suppress convection in the lower
elevations while moisture and orographic lift will help isolated
to widely scattered showers and storms develop in the mountains.
This situation keeps temperatures near normal with low rain
chances.

Models show a pattern change early next week when high pressure
over the northern Gulf Coast pushes an easterly wave into the
Texas coast and towards our CWA. The big question is whether or
not this feature will generate enough upper lift to increase rain
chances or we will remain dry. Most of the longer range models are
showing QPF across the area next week though with no surface focus
any convection would be widely scattered. Models are probably
having difficulty resolving the scattered storms and are
blanketing too much precipitation. NBM guidance seems to reflect
this with fairly low PoPs next week and this seems prudent for
now. We can hope for an increase in rain but best not to get hopes
too high this far out.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions with light southeasterly winds are forecast for all
terminals through 12/1800Z. Should see some scattered cumuli
around FL070 this afternoon, otherwise CAVU. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  98  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   71  93  71  92 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Stockton            70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           67  87  66  86 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    68  95  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  88  60  87 /  10  20  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     71  96  71  93 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  96  71  93 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     72  98  71  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...16