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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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559 FXUS64 KMAF 071913 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 213 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 It`s a hot one out there today! Temperatures are near the 100 degree mark across much of the area outside of the higher terrain and the far northeast Permian Basin. We are not seeing near as much Cu development across the mountains as drier air has made its way into the region. Still expect at least isolated convection in the typical areas of the Davis Mountains this afternoon. Attention turns to the north toward an outflow boundary leftover from morning convection across OK. Storms could fire along this boundary this evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin. After a mild night, a cool down is in store for Monday. Another thunderstorm complex is forecast to develop across the TX PH tonight before moving south. These storms will help push a cold front into the area during the day Monday. Timing is still a bit uncertain as it will depend on how storms evolve to our north. Past experience says the front will be here earlier than most models indicate so have kept high temperatures lower than NBM guidance. With the earlier frontal passage, much of the Permian Basin could miss out on rain other than some showers in the morning with the outflow/front. The best chance of rain will likely shift to locations along and west of the Pecos River by afternoon. The chance of rain will diminish through the night with lows dropping below normal mainly into the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Both convection allowing and global models indicate an MCS will be ongoing over southeastern portions of the area Tuesday morning before it moves southeast into west-central TX. A few tenths of an inch to up to a half of an inch may fall over the southeast Permian Basin into the eastern Stockton Plateau depending on whether this MCS materializes, its speed, and what path it takes. Decreased PoPs over most of southwest and southern portions of our area west of lower Trans Pecos to reflect decreased precip changes in subsiding motion surrounding the MCS. Behind the cold front that washes out over N MX on Tuesday, highs will be below normal for early to mid July, although we are expecting warmer temperatures over northern areas than in previous runs. Lingering showers and storms are likely in the cooler and more humid air behind the front, but amounts in these lingering showers and storms are forecast to stay relatively small and only a few tenths of an inch at most. Highs in the 90s, 80s in northern Lea County and Permian Basin, Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos with triple digits confined to along the Rio Grande can be expected. We might also see highs only rising into the 80s in areas the MCS passed where evaporative cooling of still wet soils limits daytime heating of the ground. If motion of the cold front Monday night is faster than currently forecast, this may stabilize conditions enough that no MCS forms and there are greater shower and storm chances in the morning west of lower Trans Pecos as well as highs rising into the 90s over the southeastern Permian Basin and eastern Stockton Plateau. Tuesday night, we can expect lows falling into the 60s aside from 70s along the Pecos River, in lower elevations of western Culberson County, and near the Rio Grande. A warming trend sets in after Tuesday as pattern of a bifurcated ridge over the western and eastern CONUS and longwave trough over central CONUS begins to fade, as ridging expands northeast from the west, thicknesses increase as the ridge slides closer, and strongest flow aloft is pushed north to the US-Canada border. Highs in the 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digits confined to the Rio Grande will be present Wednesday into Friday before triple digit highs are again reached over northeast Permian Basin and along the Pecos River near Reeves County plains and western Permian Basin for Saturday and Sunday. However, highs will still be near normal for this time of year and not as high as last week. Lows will also warm each night, with lows only falling into the 70s over most of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin by Thursday and Friday nights, and lows in the 70s and above for all but northern Lea County, Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos for Saturday and Sunday nights. A pattern of isolated to scattered storms in the Davis Mountains each afternoon due to daytime heating of elevated terrain resumes by Tuesday afternoon. Main risk with storms after Tuesday will be lightning and gusty, erratic winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR will prevail through the period. Will need to monitor for TS to our north near LUB later this afternoon as they could travel into the area. Otherwise, a front is expected by the end of the TAF period with winds turning more easterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 89 69 92 / 10 30 30 20 Carlsbad 72 87 68 90 / 0 40 40 30 Dryden 75 99 74 94 / 0 10 20 30 Fort Stockton 75 97 70 91 / 0 30 40 40 Guadalupe Pass 68 84 62 84 / 0 30 40 40 Hobbs 68 83 64 89 / 10 40 30 20 Marfa 64 94 62 89 / 10 50 40 60 Midland Intl Airport 72 89 69 90 / 10 30 30 30 Odessa 73 89 69 90 / 10 30 30 20 Wink 76 94 71 94 / 10 30 40 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29