497
FXUS64 KMAF 130504
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For tonight, lather, rinse, repeat. Conditions overnight will be
similar to those of the past several nights, with light south to
southeasterly flow and lows ranging from the mid 50s at higher
elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande.

Saturday, however, looks to be something of a problem.  Cluster
analyses from the 12Z runs of the various models reveal that
roughly 70% percent of the members going into the NBM show a
tropical upper tropospheric trough, or TUTT, moving northwestward
underneath the subtropical ridge toward the Big Bend/lower Trans
Pecos Saturday afternoon. This feature can provide upper level
support for thunderstorm activity, provided that there is sufficient
moisture available. These ensemble members, dominated by the Euro
and Canadian models, indicate that there will be sufficient moisture
and instability to gin up scattered (< 30% coverage) over the Big
Bend Saturday afternoon, with the attendant potential (probability
around 30%) of locally heavy rainfall along with frequent lightning
and wind gusts over 40 mph. The GFS ensembles, however, show no such
thing and keep things dry down there. Present thinking is that the
GFS is "windshield wiping" and probably does not have a good handle
on the initialization of the TUTT over the northwestern Gulf.

Unfortunately, we don`t have the granularity to define what specific
areas will see locally heavy rainfall across the Big Bend Saturday
afternoon/evening, but just that there is the possibility, again
indicated by 70% of the model runs that comprise the NBM. Interests
across this area, including those who are planning travel within Big
Bend National Park and Big Bend Ranch State Park, are advised to
keep an eye on the latest forecasts. Elsewhere, things will be
quieter.  High temperatures should be a shade (ha!) cooler than
today`s highs, ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to near
100 at Rio Grande Village. Winds for the most part will be from the
south to southeast at 10-15 mph, but locally higher gusts may occur
down in the Big Bend region with storm outflows.

Things across the Big Bend quiet down Saturday night. Elsewhere,
things will remain quiet. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s
at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the lower 70s along the
Rio Grande. Light south to  winds will prevail, making for a
pleasant evening. -bc

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The overall long-term forecast remains on track as discussed
previously. The Four Corners upper-high remains steadfast with the
Southeast upper-high weakening somewhat. This creates a weakness
between the ridges across the southern Great Plains and an inverted
trough is expected to develop towards the middle of next week. This
pattern holds steady through the remainder of the week. The only
questions that remain are two-fold. The first is whether an upper-
low or slow-moving disturbance can track over the region, aiding in
precipitation as discussed previously. The other question is the
evolution of a northern CONUS trough. If the trough digs deep enough
within the weakness between the ridges this may aide in a weak cold
front moving across the area towards the end of the period.
Regardless of this outcome, the general expectations remain mostly
the same. Through the remainder of the weekend into the early week,
highs remain near or slightly below normal with thunderstorms
chances across the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. As the inverted
trough takes shape, thunderstorm chances increase across the
entire region. Daily afternoon thunderstorms continue to be
possible each day through the end of the week. Temperatures hold
steady, remaining near to slightly below normal.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR continues with southeast winds becoming gusty by this
afternoon. Any convection should remain south of the terminals
today with FST being the closest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  97  73  99 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 70  96  71  98 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   72  91  72  93 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton            71  94  72  95 /  10  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           66  88  67  89 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                    68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    61  86  62  87 /  20  60  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     71  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   71  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     72  97  74  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29