561
FXUS64 KMAF 151751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The weather remains fairly quiet across the region other than the
few daily storms we`ve seen along and south of I-10. Mid level
ridging continues to expand over the area today and Tuesday.
Increased subsidence will lead to less convective activity and
keep it mostly confined to the Davis Mountains south to the Rio
Grande. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but less coverage
should limit flooding concerns. Increasing thicknesses will boost
highs this afternoon with most locations in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Cooler conditions will exist where there is a better chance
of rain. Tuesday looks like a carbon copy of today with slightly
less coverage of storms and temperatures a degree or two hotter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tuesday night lows fall into the 70s, 60s in usual cooler spots
of northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos,
as light winds, dew point temperatures only falling into the 50s
to low 60s, and high clouds limit radiational cooling. Rain
chances will taper off overnight with loss of daytime heating.
Wednesday into the end of next weekend, a cooler and rainier
pattern sets up as an inverted trough settles over the southern
Great Plains as the bifurcated ridge weakens. The lower heights
and thicknesses associated with the troughing will allow highs to
begin a downward trend, from 90s, triple digits along Pecos River,
over Reeves County plains into western Permian Basin, over
northeast Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande Wednesday, and
back below normal for mid July into the 90s for most with 80s
moving in from the north Thursday through Sunday. Overall, rain
chances will be widespread Thursday and Friday afternoons as a
passing trough across the northern Plains and Midwest pushes a
cold front south into the area. Lift and moisture with this front
in conjunction with instability from the inverted trough and
orographic lifting should result in highest rain chances over the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, with
nonzero but lesser rain chances elsewhere. Persistent easterly
flow advects in moisture and keeps clouds over the area. With
persistent cloud cover limiting solar heating, highs will continue
the downward trend, with 80s over the higher elevations and most
of the Permian Basin on Sunday, and highs mainly in the 80s aside
from 90s along the Rio Grande and 70s in higher elevations on
Monday. Lows will also continue a downward trend as a result of
lower maximum temperatures being reached in the daytime. By Sunday
and Monday nights next week, lows mainly in the 60s aside from
portions near the Pecos River and along the Rio Grande are
expected. It is worth noting that ECX and MAF NWP guidance
indicates temperatures will continue to rise into the 90s in
Midland-Odessa for next Sunday and Monday, so highs indicated in
the NBM may increase in subsequent runs, especially if inverted
troughing and reinforcing cold fronts are not as strong as
currently forecast.

July is typically our driest summer month, so the shift to a
rainier and cooler pattern will be somewhat unusual for this time
of year. NBM shows total accumulations from Tuesday night into
next Monday anywhere from half an inch over the most of the
Permian Basin and Guadalupes to near 1 inch over the easternmost
Stockton Plateau, and near 1.5 inches over the Western Low Rolling
Plains. Lowest amounts are depicted in the GEFS ensemble where
less than a half an inch falls for all but the northeast Permian
Basin and Davis Mountains, and greatest amounts are depicted in
the GEPS ensemble where mean accumulated precipitation is over 1
inch for most of the Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains,
and up to half an inch elsewhere. We will continue to monitor the
setup for rain chances and amounts, but from deterministic and
ensemble guidance it currently looks like every place in our
forecast area could receive at least a few tenths of an inch
rainfall from Tuesday night into next week, aside from the
Presidio Valley into the Big Bend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period with steady winds out of the
south-southeast. Occasional gusts are possible throughout the
daytime hours, but should generally remain near to below 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 103  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 73 101  74 100 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   73  99  73  99 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            73 101  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  93  70  90 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    70 100  71  97 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    62  92  63  92 /  20  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   74 100  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     75 102  76 101 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...16