868
FXUS64 KLZK 131716
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Forecast remains largely the same as it has the past few days.
H500 ridging over the Four Corners will slowly expand its reach
east toward the state with the mid-level trough axis across the
middle of the country becoming more diffuse and moving east as
well. A second robust area of mid-level ridging will remain in
place across the SE US.

At the sfc, ridging will remain in place which will largely
hinder precip chances through the period. A few weak disturbances
will pass nearby northern parts of the state today as well as srn
AR around the periphery of the nearby ridges. While a brief
shower or storm will be possible, confidence isn`t high enough to
introduce much in the way of POPs.

With all that being said, above normal temperatures will be the
main story through the short term period. Heat indices are
expected to top out around 100 in most locations this afternoon
with a few spots approaching 105. NWS HeatRisk values are in the
1-2 range today with higher values expected Sun-Mon. Given this,
didn`t issue any heat headlines today although they may be needed
in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through the
middle of the week. This will promote mostly calm and dry conditions
across the state Monday and Tuesday. Some diurnally driven
convection could be possible across southern locations Monday
afternoon.

A pattern change will occur as an upper level trough slides over the
area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring a cold front across
the state by late Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely
along and ahead of the front. Through much of the period, hot and
humid conditions are expected.

As mentioned above, hot conditions will continue across the state
through the long term period...High temperatures are expected to get
into the upper 80s (highest elevations) to upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the
70s. Temperatures will begin to drop as the cold front pushes
through the state Thursday. Heat advisories and even excessive heat
warnings are likely going to be needed through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected through the valid forecast period. VFR
scattered cumulus and some cirrus make up the expected cloud cover
over the next 24 hours. Light winds will remain out of the south
to southwest with peak winds remaining below 10 kts.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         73  95  73  96 /   0  20   0  20
Harrison AR       71  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    74  96  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  76  96  76  96 /   0  10   0  10
Monticello AR     75  95  75  96 /   0  20  10  20
Mount Ida AR      71  94  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  71  96  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        74  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  95  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         72  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      75  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...66