712
FXUS64 KLZK 132005
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
305 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A long weak trough axis was in place from the western New England
states to the southwest, over Arkansas and continuing on over far
west Texas. Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a
broad upper level ridge in place over the southwestern CONUS,
reinforced by the extensive heat wave over the region. Area
surface observations showed early afternoon temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s and dew point values were in the low 70s
resulting in heat index values in the 100 to 103 range. Regional
radar data showed a couple of isolated rain showers in southwest
Missouri and over northwest Louisiana. This activity is expected
to primarily stay away from Arkansas, however went ahead and
placed a mention of 10-20 percent chance of rain across far
southern Arkansas and northwest Arkansas through this evening.

The upper level trough axis is expected to weaken while moving
east over the next 24 hours. As weak troughing moves away from
Arkansas, the upper level ridging over the southwest CONUS will
expand slightly to the east, bringing a gradual warm up across the
Natural State over the next couple of days. With heat index values
remaining just below 105 today, Sunday`s heat indices will be a
few degrees warmer, resulting in heat index values up above 105
degrees in those areas with the highest afternoon humidity values.
For now, think these areas will be confined to the Arkansas River
Valley so went ahead with a heat advisory in and around the
Arkansas River Valley from Fort Smith to Little Rock, and then
including a couple of the counties in central Arkansas that
typically hold on to higher humidity values during the afternoon
hours of the day. Heat indices are only expected to hit 105
degrees for a few hours on Sunday, but between 105 heat indices
and very warm overnight low temperatures, the lack of relief from
the heat each night will add to the heat stress for those without
a shelter with cooling to spend the night in.

The heat will continue to build as we get into Monday and Tuesday,
but only carried the heat advisory for Sunday at this time. More
heat advisories will be needed Monday and Tuesday, but likely for
more counties with dangerous heat levels persisting for a longer
period of time during the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
showers or thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon once
again, but the coverage is expected to remain so low that little
to no relief from the heat will be afforded by this spotty
convection. Better rain chances and some cooler weather is in the
forecast for mid to late week in the extended forecast.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An upper ridge will be over much of the U.S. to begin the long term
period. This ridge will continue until an upper trough enters the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night and moves south Wednesday and
Thursday. This trough will remain over Arkansas Friday and Saturday.

Surface high pressure will be over the area until Wednesday. Heat
and humidity will continue with some heat indices reaching at least
105 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed. A cold front is
expected to move into north Arkansas Wednesday morning. This will
bring rain chances to the area Tuesday night through Friday and
again Saturday afternoon. Cooler air will enter the area behind the
front Thursday and Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures arriving Thursday
through Saturday.

51

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         72  95  74  96 /  10  20   0  20
Harrison AR       71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    73  96  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  76  96  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     74  95  74  95 /   0  20  10  20
Mount Ida AR      70  94  73  95 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        73  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     73  94  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      74  93  75  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ031>033-039-
043>045-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...66