406
FXUS64 KLZK 101753
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1253 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The Natural State rmns under the influence of high pressure that was
centered over the Central Plains. The resulting N/NE sfc flow has
kept a dry airmass in place acrs the region. Ongoing shower activity
over OK is expected to weaken later this mrng as it conts working to
the east-southeast. A few showers/isolated storm could make it as
far the northwest part of the FA later today, with low PoPs (20%)
included.

Little chg is expected in the overall weather pattern acrs the
region over the next few days. An upper low wl meander north of the
Great Lakes, while a flat upper ridge axis stays in place over TX
and the southwestern U.S.

The resulting NWly flow pattern aloft wl bring a couple of weak
impulses acrs the area, along with additional chances for showers
and storms. Based on the latest guidance, the first round of
convection wl affect northwest AR Sun, with second round arriving
later Sun night. The main concern wl be the potential for locally
heavy rainfall, although confidence in fcst amounts rmn low attm.

With increasing cloud cover, temps wl rmn below normal in most
areas. Highs today will be mainly in the 80s, with readings ranging
from the mid 70s northwest, to the upper 80s in the south on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Long term begins with potentially heavy rain across Northern and NW
Arkansas which is forecast to start towards the end of the short
term. This potentially heavy rain will keep temperatures well below
normal across Northern Arkansas.  At this point, there still remains
some disagreement on how much rain may fall across northern Arkansas
with the NAM being the most aggressive forecasting over 5 inches of
rain. Of course, the NBM has significantly less rain, but this area
and timeframe has been highlighted as a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall by WPC. This will bear watching in future forecast updates.

Beyond Monday, a warm front will lift north through the state and
aloft, a ridge of high pressure will build in across the region.
This will lead to temperatures gradually warming each day through
the long term. By Tuesday, temperatures will return to well above
normal with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across portions of
central and southern Arkansas.

Rain chances will remain in the forecast through the long term with
the best chances across northern Arkansas. Towards the end of the
long term, yet another cold front is forecast to approach the
state from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Shower
activity to the west will slowly move into northwestern AR while
also dissipating. VCSH has been mentioned at KHRO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  80  65  83 /  10  10  20  30
Camden AR         67  88  68  94 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       63  75  62  82 /  20  40  40  50
Hot Springs AR    69  84  68  92 /  10  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  69  85  69  90 /  10  10   0  10
Monticello AR     67  88  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      67  83  65  91 /  20  20  10  20
Mountain Home AR  64  77  64  81 /  10  30  40  50
Newport AR        64  81  66  82 /  10  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     66  86  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
Russellville AR   67  80  66  86 /  30  30  20  20
Searcy AR         64  82  65  86 /  10  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      66  84  68  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...73