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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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406 FXUS64 KLZK 101753 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1253 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The Natural State rmns under the influence of high pressure that was centered over the Central Plains. The resulting N/NE sfc flow has kept a dry airmass in place acrs the region. Ongoing shower activity over OK is expected to weaken later this mrng as it conts working to the east-southeast. A few showers/isolated storm could make it as far the northwest part of the FA later today, with low PoPs (20%) included. Little chg is expected in the overall weather pattern acrs the region over the next few days. An upper low wl meander north of the Great Lakes, while a flat upper ridge axis stays in place over TX and the southwestern U.S. The resulting NWly flow pattern aloft wl bring a couple of weak impulses acrs the area, along with additional chances for showers and storms. Based on the latest guidance, the first round of convection wl affect northwest AR Sun, with second round arriving later Sun night. The main concern wl be the potential for locally heavy rainfall, although confidence in fcst amounts rmn low attm. With increasing cloud cover, temps wl rmn below normal in most areas. Highs today will be mainly in the 80s, with readings ranging from the mid 70s northwest, to the upper 80s in the south on Sun. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Long term begins with potentially heavy rain across Northern and NW Arkansas which is forecast to start towards the end of the short term. This potentially heavy rain will keep temperatures well below normal across Northern Arkansas. At this point, there still remains some disagreement on how much rain may fall across northern Arkansas with the NAM being the most aggressive forecasting over 5 inches of rain. Of course, the NBM has significantly less rain, but this area and timeframe has been highlighted as a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall by WPC. This will bear watching in future forecast updates. Beyond Monday, a warm front will lift north through the state and aloft, a ridge of high pressure will build in across the region. This will lead to temperatures gradually warming each day through the long term. By Tuesday, temperatures will return to well above normal with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across portions of central and southern Arkansas. Rain chances will remain in the forecast through the long term with the best chances across northern Arkansas. Towards the end of the long term, yet another cold front is forecast to approach the state from the northwest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Shower activity to the west will slowly move into northwestern AR while also dissipating. VCSH has been mentioned at KHRO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 80 65 83 / 10 10 20 30 Camden AR 67 88 68 94 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 63 75 62 82 / 20 40 40 50 Hot Springs AR 69 84 68 92 / 10 10 0 10 Little Rock AR 69 85 69 90 / 10 10 0 10 Monticello AR 67 88 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 67 83 65 91 / 20 20 10 20 Mountain Home AR 64 77 64 81 / 10 30 40 50 Newport AR 64 81 66 82 / 10 10 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 66 86 67 91 / 10 0 0 10 Russellville AR 67 80 66 86 / 30 30 20 20 Searcy AR 64 82 65 86 / 10 10 10 20 Stuttgart AR 66 84 68 87 / 10 10 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...73