Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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801 FXUS64 KLZK 140812 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Benign wx conditions were noted acrs the Natural State early this mrng thanks to a weak ridge of sfc high pressure over the region. Predawn temps were once again rather warm, with readings in the 70s to around 80. Some localized fog could linger past sunrise, but impacts wl be limited. No major chgs were made to the current fcst. An upper high was centered ovr the 4-Corners region, with AR still situated on the eastern periphery. The lingering northeast to southwest aligned weak upper trof/shear axis over the FA may help to produce a few showers/storms acrs southeast AR later today. Aftn heat indices are expected to apch 105 degrees over parts of the AR River Valley, as well as some other areas in central AR. The current Heat Advisory looks good and no adjustments are planned. For Monday, the aforementioned upper high wl begin to expand to the east once again. The resulting incrs in upper heights wl result in warmer high temps Mon aftn, as the mercury tops out in the 90s. Heat headlines wl likely be needed once again for a larger part of the FA. Isold aftn convection wl again be possible over far southeast AR. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A major pattern shift is expected by Wed-Thu after several days of above normal temperatures across the state. The start of the period will remain hot and humid as H500 ridging across the SW US extending toward the state remains in place. Above normal temperatures and Td values in the upper 60s F to mid 70s F will contribute to heat index values of 105-110 in many areas. Heat related headlines will likely remain necessary through Wednesday. After that, things change for the better. Mid-level troughing will push south across the middle/eastern parts of the country which will force the persistent SW H500 ridge to build north rather than east toward the southern US. At the sfc a cold front will dive south beneath the trough and widespread showers and thunderstorms appear likely with its passage. Sfc ridging will build in its wake and much cooler temperatures appear likely across the state for at least a few days. Portions of northern AR could see highs struggle to get out of the 70s F on Thu-Sat. Additionally, lows could dip down into the 50s F across northern AR Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conds are expected to persist acrs the area. Cannot rule out a stray storm Sun aftn acrs south AR, but coverage does not warrant a mention in the fcst attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 95 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 94 74 97 75 / 10 10 20 0 Harrison AR 93 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 95 75 98 76 / 10 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 95 77 97 78 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 94 75 97 76 / 20 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 94 73 97 74 / 10 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 95 72 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 94 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 Russellville AR 96 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 95 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 76 94 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>033-039-043>045-121-122-130-138-230-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...44