696
FXUS64 KLZK 082345
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The initial wave of convection, from now Tropical Storm Beryl, conts
to lift northward acrs the FA this aftn, with another area of
rainfall concentrated over southwest AR. As expected, we are seeing
quite the range of temps over the FA. Mid aftn readings ranged fm
the 70s in the rain-cooled locations, to the 80s elsewhere.

No significant changes were made to the going fcst. The projected
track of Beryl`s remnants have sped up a bit per the latest NHC
fcst, but the overall track thru AR rmns unchanged, generally
along the I-30/US Highway 67/167 corridor. Heavy rainfall/flash
flooding potential, along with the potential for a few tornadoes,
are the main threats tonight into Tue.

Showers and a scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage tngt
as the center of Beryl moves into southwest AR later tngt. Between
now and then, this timeframe is the most concerning for tornado
formation over southwest AR as the lower lvl wind fields wl rmn
favorable for tornadic development.

The system is expected to be centered around the MO Bootheel by
early Tue evening, with rain chances quickly diminishing fm the
south and west. Drier conds wl return for Wed, with highs returning
to near normal lvls. Sfc dewpoints wl be in the 60s, so aftn heat
indices wl stay below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The prevailing upper level trof and the hurricane remnants have been
a nice break in the typical hot and excessively humid weather
normally expected in the month of July. For better or worse, weather
conditions during the extended term will be reverting back to more
typical July conditions.

The term will begin with surface high pressure building into the
area in the wake of a cool front. Above the surface, an upper level
trof of low pressure will be gradually starting to propagate
eastward.

Over time the surface high will slide to the east, allowing a return
flow of moist Gulf air across the region, while an upper level ridge
of high pressure builds across the area from the west.

The overall trend for the forecast period will be warming
temperatures and increasing moisture levels, with little in the way
of precipitation. I suspect that by Monday of next week, some areas
will see heat index values climb at or above the 105 degree
level...requiring the issuance of head advisory products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Conditions will deteriorate overnight across the area as the remnants
of Beryl move into Arkansas from the southwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over the western half of the state
with the strongest storms in the southwest. Areal coverage will
increase through the night. Winds will be gusty at times. The
center of Beryl should track generally along the I-30/Highway
67/167 corridor. VFR conditions will become IFR at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  75  64  88 /  90  90  20  10
Camden AR         69  82  65  91 /  90  70  10  10
Harrison AR       65  75  62  86 /  90  90  10   0
Hot Springs AR    68  81  66  90 / 100  90  10  10
Little Rock   AR  72  79  68  89 / 100  90  10  10
Monticello AR     73  82  67  90 /  80  60  10  10
Mount Ida AR      65  81  64  89 / 100  80  10  10
Mountain Home AR  66  74  62  86 /  90  90  10   0
Newport AR        71  79  65  87 /  90  90  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     72  80  67  88 /  90  80  10  10
Russellville AR   68  80  65  89 /  90  90  10  10
Searcy AR         70  78  65  88 /  90  90  20  10
Stuttgart AR      73  80  67  86 /  90  80  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>033-039-042>044-052>054-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...51