440
FXUS64 KLZK 141943
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Incrsg heat and humidity will be the main story through the short
term PD, w/ aftn readings on Sun topping out in the low to mid 90s
at most locations. Some isolated thunderstorms were also beginning
to develop acrs far Srn AR via recent radar imgry, but expect this
activity to remain isolated, and primarily diurnally driven.

Mon and Tues, the pattern is not expected to change, w/ daily temps
and humidity continuing to incrs area-wide, as an H500 closed high
slowly maneuvers Ewrd towards the Srn Plains. Area temps Mon and
Tues aftn are currently progged to reach the upper 90s, w/ some
locations in the AR River Valley and Nrn AR topping 100 degrees.

Alongside incrsg temps, humidity wl result in max aftn heat index
values of 105 to near 110 degrees at most locations on Mon aftn, and
have gone forward w/ another Heat Advisory for most areas, excluding
the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns. Some uncertainty remains acrs
S/Ern AR for Mon aftn, as higher cirrus, and incrsg chcs for diurnal
convection may provide some relief from Heat Advisory condns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The upper ridge that has been over the area will break down Tuesday
and Wednesday and an upper trough will enter the Great Lakes and
move south. This trough will remain over Arkansas Thursday through
Saturday. High pressure will begin to move into the state Sunday
from the southeast.

Surface high pressure will be over the area until Wednesday. Heat
and humidity will continue with some heat indices reaching at least
105 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed. A cold front is
expected to move into north Arkansas Wednesday morning. This will
bring rain chances to the area Tuesday night through Friday and
small chances Saturday and Sunday. Cooler air will enter the area
behind the front Thursday and Friday. Above normal temperatures are
expected Wednesday with below normal temperatures Thursday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Sctd Cu field was beginning to develop on recent vis sat imgry
around the FA. Expect VFR condns to persist thru the PD, w/ S/Wrly
winds persisting area-wide. Have included VCTS mentions for Srn
terminals, however confidence on precip remains low at the moment.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
Harrison AR       73  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    75  98  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  77  97  78  98 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     75  97  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      73  97  74  97 /   0  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  73  97  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        75  96  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  97  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
Russellville AR   75  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      76  95  76  95 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-212-213-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>033-039-
043>045-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...72