292
FXUS64 KLZK 112355 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The main story regarding the short-term forecast period of ending the
work-week and delving into the weekend will be the increasing
temperatures and overall dry conditions across the CWA and state.

In the upper lvls, the state remains positioned between a stout area
of ridging over the Four Corners region of the CONUS and a trof axis
over the state that slowly moves eastward over the period away from
the the CWA and state.

At the sfc, a stout area of high pressure will meander across the
state and eventually into the Mid-South region of the CONUS into
Saturday. This area of sfc high pressure will play an important role
in keeping the CWA and state overwhelmingly dry over the short-term
forecast period. The state will be flanked by two separate
boundaries: one to the north across southern Missouri and a second
across northern Louisiana and the I-20 corridor. The boundaries will
remain nearly stationary, but may get close enough to the CWA to
provide some low chances at POPs across northern and southern
Arkansas; however, this looks to be an outside possibility, and if
it does come to fruition, QPF amounts would be lucky to amount to
enough to knock the dust down.

Temperatures with respect to both morning low and afternoon high
temperatures will both be slightly above normal for this time of the
year compared to climatological normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Pretty much a lather, rinse and repeat forecast once again as models
are not showing much deviation in their overall output. Guidance is
starting to show a frontal system very late in the period and if it
pans out, would bring at least some precipitation chances to the
CWA. Until then, it will largely be a persistence forecast.

Period initiates with broad upper trough over the Ohio Valley and
pulling away with a sprawling upper ridge which has been baking the
western CONUS, centered over the central Rockies.

Upper ridge does retrograde slightly over the weekend before being
knocked down and stretched out somewhat by a mid level cyclone
moving through central Canada. Ridge does expand to cover the CWA
but has considerably less amplitude than previous upper highs. This
will allow for at least some diurnally driven convection but overall
it looks to be spotty in nature. The best chances appear to be
Sunday afternoon as a weak wave makes its approach.

An actual cold front will be dropping down from the north very late
in the period with increased rain chances late Wednesday and into
Wednesday night with the GFS a little faster than the ECMWF. As far
as temperatures are concerned, highs are expected to get into the
upper 80s (highest elevations) to the upper 90s with heat index
values approaching heat advisory criteria at times. Overnight lows
are expected to drop into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Expect VFR condns to persist thru the PD, w/ winds bcmg light and
variable overnight Thurs night. Srly winds should resume on Fri.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  94  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Camden AR         70  96  71  97 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       69  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    72  96  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  73  95  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     71  96  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      69  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  69  92  70  94 /  10  20   0   0
Newport AR        70  93  72  95 /   0  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  95  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   72  94  72  96 /   0  10   0   0
Searcy AR         70  94  71  95 /   0  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  92  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...72