659
FXUS64 KLZK 120800
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Overall pattern remains the same through the short term portion of
the forecast. H500 ridge remains in place across the SW US with a
trough extending south toward the state from the Great Lakes, sfc
ridging will hold firm locally. Not quite a true NW flow setup as
the ridge`s influence extends east toward the mid-south. This
setup will mainly provide dry conditions and slightly above normal
temperatures to the state through Saturday.

Heat headlines don`t appear likely for most of the state, but a
few locations could see heat indices around 105 on Saturday. Have
included some POPs across northern AR today, given the early
morning TS development along the KS/MO border aided by the
increased LLJ across OK and KS. Anticipate that much of this
activity diminishes as it drifts E/SE with time but given daytime
heating and perhaps some remnant boundary influence, there could
be some additional development throughout the day. A similar
situation is possible tonight into Saturday morning, but
confidence isn`t high enough to include much in the way of POPs
attm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through the
middle of next week. Diurnally driven convection cannot be ruled out
Monday afternoon, although PoPs are kept on the lower end with
chances around 20 to 30 percent. The best chance for PoPs will be
across southern locations.

A pattern change will occur as an upper level trough slides over the
area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring a cold front across
the state by late Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely
along and ahead of the front. Through much of the period, hot and
humid conditions are expected.

As mentioned above, hot conditions are will continue across the
state through the long term period...High temperatures are expected
to get into the upper 80s (highest elevations) to upper 90s to near
100 degrees. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into
the 70s. Temperatures will begin to drop as the cold front pushes
through the state Thursday. Heat advisories and even excessive heat
warnings are likely going to be needed through the much of period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds becoming
more srly through the day, generally at less than 7-9 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  71  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         95  72  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Harrison AR       90  71  92  70 /  30   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    95  73  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  94  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     95  73  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
Mount Ida AR      93  71  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  90  71  93  71 /  20   0  10   0
Newport AR        92  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
Russellville AR   94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         92  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      92  73  94  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67