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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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404 FXUS64 KLZK 130825 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 325 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Forecast remains largely the same as it has the past few days. H500 ridging over the Four Corners will slowly expand its reach east toward the state with the mid-level trough axis across the middle of the country becoming more diffuse and moving east as well. A second robust area of mid-level ridging will remain in place across the SE US. At the sfc, ridging will remain in place which will largely hinder precip chances through the period. A few weak disturbances will pass nearby northern parts of the state today as well as srn AR around the periphery of the nearby ridges. While a brief shower or storm will be possible, confidence isn`t high enough to introduce much in the way of POPs. With all that being said, above normal temperatures will be the main story through the short term period. Heat indices are expected to top out around 100 in most locations this afternoon with a few spots approaching 105. NWS HeatRisk values are in the 1-2 range today with higher values expected Sun-Mon. Given this, didn`t issue any heat headlines today although they may be needed in the coming days. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through the middle of the week. This will promote mostly calm and dry conditions across the state Monday and Tuesday. Some diurnally driven convection could be possible across southern locations Monday afternoon. A pattern change will occur as an upper level trough slides over the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring a cold front across the state by late Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the front. Through much of the period, hot and humid conditions are expected. As mentioned above, hot conditions will continue across the state through the long term period...High temperatures are expected to get into the upper 80s (highest elevations) to upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the 70s. Temperatures will begin to drop as the cold front pushes through the state Thursday. Heat advisories and even excessive heat warnings are likely going to be needed through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions expected with winds out of the S/SW at less than 10 kts. A few showers/storms possible across southern and northern AR this afternoon/evening. Coverage will be very limited and likely not impact area terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 20 0 Harrison AR 91 71 95 71 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 94 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 97 75 95 75 / 0 0 20 10 Mount Ida AR 93 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 92 71 96 71 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 93 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 96 75 95 75 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 94 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 95 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 75 94 76 / 0 0 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...67