582
FXUS64 KLZK 190819
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
319 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Somewhat of a blocking pattern evolving in the near term with
ridging over the western states and the southeast, and troughing
in most areas east of the Rockies. While the pattern will not come
to a halt, the weather will change slowly.

As the period begins, northwest flow around the ridge to the west
will continue driving a large area of high pressure from the upper
Midwest to the Ohio Valley today/tonight. Drier air surrounding
the high has already made it into much of the region except the
far southeast, with dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Temperatures are also cooler, and nothing like a typical July.

The only chance of rain in the near term will be over the
far southeast. This area is closest to a stalled boundary along
the Gulf Coast, and there will be enough moisture to yield
isolated showers/thunderstorms today and Saturday.

As the period ends, the high will wobble to the east, and the
boundary to the south shows signs of drifting to the north. There
is also a system that will meander this way from the Plains.
Over time, the result will be a more unsettled pattern in the
long term.

Temperatures through the period will be below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The long-term forecast period will be highlighted by a progressive
pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal chances for
precipitation for this time of the year and confidence continues to
support this statement as model agreement is present.

In the upper lvls to begin the long-term period, a closed low will
be positioned to the north of the CWA over Missouri and throughout
next week will become a trof axis that will be positioned over
Arkansas for the duration of the long-term period as ridging remains
locked in across the Western region of the CONUS and between two
separate closed lows; one over the Pacific Northwest coast and the
other departing over the Northeastern region of the CONUS assisting
in locking in this upper lvl pattern as we delve into next week.

At the sfc, a frontal boundary will be pushing back into the Natural
State and remain parked across the state well into next week. The
result will be shower and isolated thunderstorm chances for each day
in the long term of Sunday through Thursday. It will not be a
complete washout by any means, but areas across the CWA and Arkansas
can expect to add some appreciable rainfall totals over these five
days.

In relation to possible ranges of QPF over the five days of expected
elevated POPs across the CWA and Arkansas, models suggest distinct
ranges across the northern, central, and southern portions of the
state. In northern Arkansas, latest data indicates a range of 0.25
to 0.75 inches of rainfall... across central Arkansas (and the
Interstate 40 corridor) the trend becomes a slight increase to 0.50
to 1.00 inches of rainfall... and the uptick trend increases across
southern Arkansas where 0.75 to 1.75 inches of rainfall is
anticipated to fall. It`s important to remember two key points: one
is that these ranges this far in advance may change and second the
rainfall is forecast to fall over a five day period.

The tradeoff due to this boundary which is expected to essentially
stall across the state will be the below normal temperatures with
respect to both high and low temperatures for this time of the year.
High temperatures will be noticeably below normal by 5 to 10 degrees
in some locations, whereas low temperatures will be only a few
degrees below normal, but a major difference will be felt compared
to temperatures typical of the Natural State in late July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening. There
will be some mid/high clouds and spotty showers in southeast
Arkansas. Otherwise, dry conditions will be noted. The wind will be
light northeast overnight, and northeast at 6 to 12 knots on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         87  65  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  59  83  65 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    87  65  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  86  67  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     86  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      86  61  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  81  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        82  63  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     85  66  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   86  64  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         84  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      84  67  86  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...46