813
FXUS64 KLZK 141151
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Benign wx conditions were noted acrs the Natural State early this
mrng thanks to a weak ridge of sfc high pressure over the region.
Predawn temps were once again rather warm, with readings in the
70s to around 80. Some localized fog could linger past sunrise,
but impacts wl be limited.

No major chgs were made to the current fcst. An upper high was
centered ovr the 4-Corners region, with AR still situated on the
eastern periphery. The lingering northeast to southwest aligned
weak upper trof/shear axis over the FA may help to produce a few
showers/storms acrs southeast AR later today.

Aftn heat indices are expected to apch 105 degrees over parts of the
AR River Valley, as well as some other areas in central AR. The
current Heat Advisory looks good and no adjustments are planned.

For Monday, the aforementioned upper high wl begin to expand to the
east once again. The resulting incrs in upper heights wl result in
warmer high temps Mon aftn, as the mercury tops out in the 90s. Heat
headlines wl likely be needed once again for a larger part of the
FA. Isold aftn convection wl again be possible over far southeast
AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A major pattern shift is expected by Wed-Thu after several days of
above normal temperatures across the state. The start of the period
will remain hot and humid as H500 ridging across the SW US
extending toward the state remains in place. Above normal
temperatures and Td values in the upper 60s F to mid 70s F will
contribute to heat index values of 105-110 in many areas. Heat
related headlines will likely remain necessary through Wednesday.

After that, things change for the better. Mid-level troughing will
push south across the middle/eastern parts of the country which will
force the persistent SW H500 ridge to build north rather than east
toward the southern US. At the sfc a cold front will dive south
beneath the trough and widespread showers and thunderstorms appear
likely with its passage. Sfc ridging will build in its wake and much
cooler temperatures appear likely across the state for at least a
few days. Portions of northern AR could see highs struggle to get
out of the 70s F on Thu-Sat. Additionally, lows could dip down into
the 50s F across northern AR Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

IFR/LIFR conds, due to low clouds and fog, wl impacts parts of
west- central AR for a few hours early, mainly at KADF. Otherwise,
VFR conds wl persist. Still cannot rule out a stray shower or
storm later today acrs southeast AR, but kept a mention out of the
fcst due to limited coverage.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ031>033-039-043>045-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...44