551
FXUS64 KLZK 150534
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Incrsg heat and humidity will be the main story through the short
term PD, w/ aftn readings on Sun topping out in the low to mid 90s
at most locations. Some isolated thunderstorms were also beginning
to develop acrs far Srn AR via recent radar imgry, but expect this
activity to remain isolated, and primarily diurnally driven.

Mon and Tues, the pattern is not expected to change, w/ daily temps
and humidity continuing to incrs area-wide, as an H500 closed high
slowly maneuvers Ewrd towards the Srn Plains. Area temps Mon and
Tues aftn are currently progged to reach the upper 90s, w/ some
locations in the AR River Valley and Nrn AR topping 100 degrees.

Alongside incrsg temps, humidity wl result in max aftn heat index
values of 105 to near 110 degrees at most locations on Mon aftn, and
have gone forward w/ another Heat Advisory for most areas, excluding
the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns. Some uncertainty remains acrs
S/Ern AR for Mon aftn, as higher cirrus, and incrsg chcs for diurnal
convection may provide some relief from Heat Advisory condns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The upper ridge that has been over the area will break down Tuesday
and Wednesday and an upper trough will enter the Great Lakes and
move south. This trough will remain over Arkansas Thursday through
Saturday. High pressure will begin to move into the state Sunday
from the southeast.

Surface high pressure will be over the area until Wednesday. Heat
and humidity will continue with some heat indices reaching at least
105 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed. A cold front is
expected to move into north Arkansas Wednesday morning. This will
bring rain chances to the area Tuesday night through Friday and
small chances Saturday and Sunday. Cooler air will enter the area
behind the front Thursday and Friday. Above normal temperatures are
expected Wednesday with below normal temperatures Thursday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Once again expecting VFR conds to prevail thru the fcst PD. A
stray shower or storm will again be possibly Mon aftn, but wl not
include due to the limited areal coverage. Light winds in the mrng
wl bcm S/SW at 5 to 15 mph in most areas.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-103-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-212-213-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...44