Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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401 FXUS64 KLZK 152319 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 619 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Tightening sfc pres grad was noted acrs the FA this aftn, w/ S/Wrly winds incrsg, as Appalachian sfc high pressure drifts E/wrd, and deepening sfc cyclonic flow was moving over the Cntrl Plains/Midwest vcty. Area temps were in the low to mid 90s as 19Z obs, w/ widespread advisory level heat index values as well. Expect a similar pattern as Sun, w/ limited chcs for isolated thunder acrs Srn to S/Ern AR and the greater ARKLAMISS region. Tues looks to be our hottest day of the week, w/ area temps approaching the upper 90s, and some locations possibly topping 100 degrees. W/ higher aftn temps, heat index values wl easily reach and exceed 105 to 110 degrees over a significant portion of the FA, including the I-40 corridor and AR River Valley, as well as the N/Ern River Delta Region. As such, have gone forward w/ area-wide hazards on Tues, and an excessive heat warning for the aforementioned regions where heat index values are set to exceed 110 degrees. Incrsg chcs for rain and storms wl be noted later Tues evng acrs Nrn AR and much of the Ozark Plateau, as sfc pres falls over the Srn Plains wl yield sfc pres troughing acrs the Ozarks, and result in a developing stationary bndry. This bndry should serve as the focal pt for new convective development Tues evng, and wl be overlaid by slightly incrsg vertical shear as H500 hgt falls overspread the lower OH River Valley. Bulk shear wl still be somewhat mrgl, generally 30 kts or less, however, low-lvl forcing and mrgl shear should still support a condnl, and isolated threat for some organized convective activity. Main hazards should stay confined to large hail potential, and possible consolidation of developing updrafts/cold pools into a larger cold pool/bowing segment... as advertised by some early long range CAM runs...which would support a greater damaging wind threat through the hours beyond 00Z Wed (later Tues night). Wed, a pattern shift wl be underway, and this wl lkly be our inflection pt of the week towards a cooler pattern, as a weak summer cdfrnt is set to move into the FA ahead of expanding sfc high pressure over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Rain chances will become more widespread and incrs in magnitude towards the latter portion of Wed as the frnt approaches. Early signals among mesoscale guidance are showing some potential for locally heavy rainfall (some swaths of one to two inches acrs portions of Nrn to Cntrl AR), which could result in some local flooding issues overnight Wed. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The upper ridge that has been over the area will break down and an upper trough in the Great Lakes will move south. This trough will remain over Arkansas Thursday through Saturday. High pressure will be southeast of Arkansas Sunday and Monday and will provide a southwest flow into Arkansas. A cold front will continue moving south through the state Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain chances will continue but will be confined to the south by Thursday night. Rain chances continue mainly in the south Friday through Saturday night. By Sunday, a warm front moves in from the south and brings more widespread chances of rain to the state that continue through Monday. Below normal temperatures are expected through the extended period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Some chances for afternoon convection will be seen late tomorrow afternoon across NRN AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 77 97 76 90 / 0 10 10 60 Camden AR 75 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 75 96 73 87 / 10 20 20 70 Hot Springs AR 77 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 30 Little Rock AR 79 99 79 95 / 0 0 0 40 Monticello AR 78 98 79 97 / 0 10 0 30 Mount Ida AR 75 97 74 94 / 0 10 0 40 Mountain Home AR 75 97 74 87 / 10 20 30 70 Newport AR 76 97 77 91 / 0 10 10 50 Pine Bluff AR 77 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 30 Russellville AR 77 100 77 93 / 0 10 0 50 Searcy AR 75 97 76 92 / 0 10 0 50 Stuttgart AR 78 97 78 93 / 0 0 0 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-113-121>123-130- 137-138-140-141-212-213-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004-052-053- 056-057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223- 237-240-241-313-340-341. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054-055-121-122- 130-138-230-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...62