693
FXUS64 KLZK 160534
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tightening sfc pres grad was noted acrs the FA this aftn, w/ S/Wrly
winds incrsg, as Appalachian sfc high pressure drifts E/wrd, and
deepening sfc cyclonic flow was moving over the Cntrl Plains/Midwest
vcty. Area temps were in the low to mid 90s as 19Z obs, w/
widespread advisory level heat index values as well. Expect a
similar pattern as Sun, w/ limited chcs for isolated thunder acrs
Srn to S/Ern AR and the greater ARKLAMISS region.

Tues looks to be our hottest day of the week, w/ area temps
approaching the upper 90s, and some locations possibly topping 100
degrees. W/ higher aftn temps, heat index values wl easily reach and
exceed 105 to 110 degrees over a significant portion of the FA,
including the I-40 corridor and AR River Valley, as well as the
N/Ern River Delta Region. As such, have gone forward w/ area-wide
hazards on Tues, and an excessive heat warning for the
aforementioned regions where heat index values are set to exceed
110 degrees.

Incrsg chcs for rain and storms wl be noted later Tues evng acrs Nrn
AR and much of the Ozark Plateau, as sfc pres falls over the Srn
Plains wl yield sfc pres troughing acrs the Ozarks, and result in a
developing stationary bndry. This bndry should serve as the focal pt
for new convective development Tues evng, and wl be overlaid by
slightly incrsg vertical shear as H500 hgt falls overspread the
lower OH River Valley. Bulk shear wl still be somewhat mrgl,
generally 30 kts or less, however, low-lvl forcing and mrgl shear
should still support a condnl, and isolated threat for some
organized convective activity. Main hazards should stay confined to
large hail potential, and possible consolidation of developing
updrafts/cold pools into a larger cold pool/bowing segment... as
advertised by some early long range CAM runs...which would support a
greater damaging wind threat through the hours beyond 00Z Wed (later
Tues night).

Wed, a pattern shift wl be underway, and this wl lkly be our
inflection pt of the week towards a cooler pattern, as a weak summer
cdfrnt is set to move into the FA ahead of expanding sfc high
pressure over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Rain chances will
become more widespread and incrs in magnitude towards the latter
portion of Wed as the frnt approaches. Early signals among mesoscale
guidance are showing some potential for locally heavy rainfall (some
swaths of one to two inches acrs portions of Nrn to Cntrl AR), which
could result in some local flooding issues overnight Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The upper ridge that has been over the area will break down and an
upper trough in the Great Lakes will move south. This trough will
remain over Arkansas Thursday through Saturday. High pressure will
be southeast of Arkansas Sunday and Monday and will provide a
southwest flow into Arkansas.

A cold front will continue moving south through the state Wednesday
night and Thursday. Rain chances will continue but will be confined
to the south by Thursday night. Rain chances continue mainly in the
south Friday through Saturday night. By Sunday, a warm front moves
in from the south and brings more widespread chances of rain to the
state that continue through Monday. Below normal temperatures are
expected through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conds are expected to persist thru the PD as mainly high lvl
clouds wl stream acrs the region. Included PROB30 groups at KHRO
and KBPK later Tue aftn for convective potential. Light S/SW winds
overnight wl incrs to 10 to 15 mph later this mrng, with some
higher gusts possible.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ004-052-053-056-057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-
212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054-055-121-
122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...44