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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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941 FXUS64 KLZK 162310 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The overall synoptic pattern had Arkansas was on the eastern edge of an upper ridge this morning. The ridge is retrograding and amplifying over the western US, which will result in a trof taking its place over the midsection of the country. Ultimately Arkansas will end up under a NW-W flow aloft. A cold front will be moving out of the Plains and making its way into Arkansas tomorrow. The front will take its time and may not make it out of the forecast area until late tomorrow night into the early hours of Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the state tomorrow, reaching the highest POPs tomorrow night. The only lingering question is what the rain chances will look like overnight into early tomorrow morning. NAM is rather aggressive at developing showers and thunderstorms along outflow coming out of MO/OK later this evening, and the HRRR follows suit, albeit with the convection further north and with somewhat less coverage. With that in mind, I have introduced some lower grade POPs further south toward central AR by morning...faster than the NBM brings anything into the area. Last but not least, afternoon heat index values across the southern counties tomorrow will top 105...so I went ahead and issued a heat advisory for those areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Guidance remains in relatively good agreement this afternoon and any changes to the extended period will be relatively minor. Confidence remains on the higher side that temperatures will actually average below seasonal average with at least some chances of precipitation, especially in the latter part of the period. Period starts with a highly amplified pattern in place that is highlighted by upper ridging over the western CONUS and subsequent downstream troughing stretching from the western gulf coast NE to the eastern Great Lakes. Surface boundary forecast to be located over northern Louisiana with ongoing chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the south through Friday. Additional precip amounts will be minimal with just a few hundredths of an inch possible. Front will remain quasi-stationary over northern Louisiana before starting to retreat back to the north and stalling out over south Arkansas Sunday. Most of the state, with the exception of the far south, will be dry on Saturday before widespread precipitation chances return on Sunday. Precipitation amounts are not expected to be very high but some areas could pick upwards of a half an inch. A slightly cooler but noticeably drier airmass will overspread the region behind the front with both high and low temperatures below average. Moisture levels will begin to increase as the boundary moves north but temperatures should stay below average with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances in place. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Chances for convection increase late this afternoon and through the evening hrs across NRN sections...then gradually shifting south during the overnight/morning hrs for the central to SRN terminals. By Wed afternoon...expect a break in precip...but additional convection may redevelop during the heat of the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 87 68 84 / 70 80 60 30 Camden AR 76 96 70 86 / 10 30 60 70 Harrison AR 69 84 65 82 / 80 80 30 10 Hot Springs AR 74 94 70 85 / 30 50 70 60 Little Rock AR 75 91 72 84 / 40 50 70 50 Monticello AR 78 96 72 86 / 0 40 60 70 Mount Ida AR 73 93 68 84 / 30 50 70 50 Mountain Home AR 71 84 67 84 / 80 80 40 10 Newport AR 73 88 70 83 / 60 70 60 30 Pine Bluff AR 76 94 71 83 / 10 40 70 60 Russellville AR 73 90 70 85 / 60 60 70 40 Searcy AR 73 88 70 83 / 60 70 70 40 Stuttgart AR 74 90 73 82 / 20 40 70 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-052-053-056- 057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237- 240-241-313-340-341. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054-055-121-122- 130-138-230-238. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ052-053- 062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...62