931
FXUS64 KLZK 170852
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ongoing convective complex conts to slowly work to the ESE acrs
northern and parts of central AR, primarily assocd with an MCV
that moved out of SW MO late on Tue. While this initial activity
has shown a weakening trend, additional storms were quickly
forming to the west and northwest.

Have seen impressive rainfall rates/amounts in some areas since late
Tue evening, with radar estimates between 6 and 10 inches in some
areas. CAMS cont to move this system off to the east this mrng.
Meanwhile, additional convection has been forming acrs southern MO
and northeast OK over the last few hours, ahead of the synoptic
CDFNT, and aided by an increasing low lvl jet.

Data suggest that areal coverage wl cont to incrs thru daybreak and
eventually congeal into a new complex that wl impact some of the
same areas that have seen heavy rainfall overnight. Posted a Flood
Watch for the northern third of the FA thru noontime as the
additional new rainfall wl likely lead to flooding in a short
amount of time.

High temp fcst today is going to be quite the challenge. Went ahead
and trended max temps closer to the HRRR guidance. Still appears
that south AR wl warm well into the 90s, with aftn heat indices
reaching advisory criteria.

The aforementioned CDFNT is still fcst to work slowly southward acrs
much of AR thru Thu, with contd chcs of showers and storms along and
south of the boundary. Meanwhile, drier air wl filter into the state
behind the fnt, with PoPs quickly diminishing. Looks like most of
the FA wl see dry conds return later Thu night.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The long-term forecast period will be marred by a progressive
pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal chances for
precipitation.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

A frontal boundary during the day on Friday will be positioned
between the Arkansas/Louisiana border and the I-20 corridor across
Louisiana and become a stationary boundary stalled across central
Louisiana into the day on Saturday. Expect shower and thunderstorms
chances to be present across southern Arkansas on both Friday and
Saturday given the close proximity of this boundary.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:

The frontal boundary stalled across Louisiana will lift back into
the Natural State and remain positioned across the state for the
remainder of the long-term forecast period keeping shower and
thunderstorm chances elevated. Expect several days of increased
chances of POPs as a stalled frontal boundary will be positioned
across the state.

At the moment, rainfall totals on the long-term period do not look
to be too impressive as far as amounting to significant QPF leading
to any flooding concerns; however, any rain in July is usually
welcomed by most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Continue to watch convective complex over north AR. Based on
current trends and model data, most of the activity wl avoid most
of the fcst sites thru the mrng hrs. Have keep VCTS at some sites,
as assocd outflow bndry/s could provide a focus for some further
development. New convection is expected to form later this mrng
ahead of the actual CDFNT that wl work into N AR around midday and
affect central and eventually S AR later in the PD. Flight conds
wl lower where heavier storms occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  70  85  63 /  90  30  10   0
Camden AR         93  71  85  67 /  50  70  60  10
Harrison AR       83  66  83  61 /  80  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    90  71  85  67 /  50  50  40   0
Little Rock   AR  89  74  87  69 /  70  50  30   0
Monticello AR     94  73  87  69 /  50  70  60  10
Mount Ida AR      89  69  83  65 /  60  50  40   0
Mountain Home AR  84  67  83  62 /  80  10  10   0
Newport AR        85  70  85  64 /  80  30  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  72  85  68 /  50  60  40  10
Russellville AR   87  72  87  67 /  80  40  20   0
Searcy AR         87  71  86  64 /  80  40  20   0
Stuttgart AR      88  73  84  68 /  60  50  30   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-
103-112-113-123-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...44