342
FXUS64 KLZK 201649
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

An upper level high pressure system is over the western U.S. with an
upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the eastern
U.S. This pattern will continue through Sunday.

Surface high pressure continues over Arkansas with a stationary
front to the east and south. This front will start moving north
Sunday and enter the state Sunday afternoon. This will bring an
increase in moisture and rain chances to the north Sunday morning
and will be more widespread during the afternoon and evening.

Below normal temperatures will continue today and Sunday. Highs
today and Sunday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The overall pattern looks largely the same throughout the extended
period. There will be ridging over the western states and the
southeast, and troughing in most areas east of the Rockies. Given
troughing, the weather looks unsettled, and temperatures will be not
so hot.

As the period begins, a boundary from the Gulf Coast will be in the
process of lifting slowly to the north. The dry air/dewpoints in the
50s and 60s will be pretty much gone, with moisture levels on the
way up. At the same time, a system in the central/southern Plains
will be incoming. The system will wobble to the east and eventually
wash out.

In the end, we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms pretty
much every day. Precipitation coverage will be greatest during the
afternoon/early evening, and more spotty at night/in the morning.
Any severe weather/flash flooding will be localized at most.

The current forecast calls for the most rain over central/southern
Arkansas through Friday. This is where one to two inch amounts are
possible, and some totals could be higher. Half inch to inch amounts
are expected farther north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as light
northerly flow continues to provide gentle reinforcement of dryer
air across Arkansas. VFR ceilings are expected through the
forecast period. There is a potential for some early morning fog
Sunday morning, but think it will be limited to low-lying areas
near bodies of water. Will monitor and add a couple of hours of
fog to the forecast Sunday morning if it looks like fog could
become more widespread.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
Camden AR         90  67  92  70 /   0   0  10  20
Harrison AR       82  65  80  64 /   0  20  40  40
Hot Springs AR    89  69  90  70 /   0   0  10  30
Little Rock   AR  88  70  88  72 /   0   0  10  30
Monticello AR     90  70  93  72 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      88  66  88  67 /   0  10  20  40
Mountain Home AR  82  65  81  65 /   0  10  30  40
Newport AR        84  67  85  69 /   0   0  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     87  68  89  70 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   87  69  87  69 /   0  10  20  40
Searcy AR         87  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  30
Stuttgart AR      85  69  87  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...66