845
FXUS64 KLZK 171724 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ongoing convective complex conts to slowly work to the ESE acrs
northern and parts of central AR, primarily assocd with an MCV
that moved out of SW MO late on Tue. While this initial activity
has shown a weakening trend, additional storms were quickly
forming to the west and northwest.

Have seen impressive rainfall rates/amounts in some areas since late
Tue evening, with radar estimates between 6 and 10 inches in some
areas. CAMS cont to move this system off to the east this mrng.
Meanwhile, additional convection has been forming acrs southern MO
and northeast OK over the last few hours, ahead of the synoptic
CDFNT, and aided by an increasing low lvl jet.

Data suggest that areal coverage wl cont to incrs thru daybreak and
eventually congeal into a new complex that wl impact some of the
same areas that have seen heavy rainfall overnight. Posted a Flood
Watch for the northern third of the FA thru noontime as the
additional new rainfall wl likely lead to flooding in a short
amount of time.

High temp fcst today is going to be quite the challenge. Went ahead
and trended max temps closer to the HRRR guidance. Still appears
that south AR wl warm well into the 90s, with aftn heat indices
reaching advisory criteria.

The aforementioned CDFNT is still fcst to work slowly southward acrs
much of AR thru Thu, with contd chcs of showers and storms along and
south of the boundary. Meanwhile, drier air wl filter into the state
behind the fnt, with PoPs quickly diminishing. Looks like most of

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The long-term forecast period will be marred by a progressive
pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal chances for
precipitation.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

A frontal boundary during the day on Friday will be positioned
between the Arkansas/Louisiana border and the I-20 corridor across
Louisiana and become a stationary boundary stalled across central
Louisiana into the day on Saturday. Expect shower and thunderstorms
chances to be present across southern Arkansas on both Friday and
Saturday given the close proximity of this boundary.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:

The frontal boundary stalled across Louisiana will lift back into
the Natural State and remain positioned across the state for the
remainder of the long-term forecast period keeping shower and
thunderstorm chances elevated. Expect several days of increased
chances of POPs as a stalled frontal boundary will be positioned
across the state.

At the moment, rainfall totals on the long-term period do not look
to be too impressive as far as amounting to significant QPF leading
to any flooding concerns; however, any rain in July is usually
welcomed by most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Precip has diminished and largely moved out of the state as of
1720z with a few hours of dry weather expected. This will be short
lived with additional rain and thunderstorms likely to develop
across all but far northern AR terminals this evening into the
morning hours Thursday. This will lead to MVFR/IFR conditions
through much of the period. Winds will be variable in direction
and speed, with occasional strong gusts associated with TS
activity possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  85  63  83 /  30  10   0   0
Camden AR         71  85  67  86 /  60  60  10  10
Harrison AR       66  83  61  82 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  85  67  87 /  60  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  74  87  69  86 /  60  30   0   0
Monticello AR     73  87  69  86 /  70  60  10  20
Mount Ida AR      69  83  65  86 /  60  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  67  83  62  82 /  10  10   0   0
Newport AR        70  85  64  83 /  30  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  85  68  84 /  60  40  10  10
Russellville AR   72  87  67  86 /  40  20   0   0
Searcy AR         71  86  64  85 /  40  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      73  84  68  83 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67