083
FXUS64 KLZK 171930
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

After an overnight and early morning of significant rainfall
across portions of northern Arkansas, much quieter conditions are
in place for now across the area. Cloud cover across much of the
area in addition to the earlier precip has kept temperatures even
lower than previously thought. Afternoon visible satellite
imagery and regional radar data shows a few different MCVs and
associated boundaries with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, generally to the east and west of the state. An MCV
across central OK will continue to rotate its way toward the S/SE
which could help promote additional showers and storms across
western and southern portions of the state through the late
evening/overnight hours.

Through the overnight hours and into Thursday a series of H500
disturbances will continue to move across the state in the NW flow.
At the same time the sfc boundary to the north of the area will
drift south. These features will help to focus additional rain and
thunderstorm activity across the state through Thursday. Attm, the
main focus for activity should remain south of locations impacted by
heavy rain earlier today. But, high PWATs and overall slow storm
motion cold promote locally heavy rainfall totals where precip
occurs. Didn`t issue a flood watch given the most likely areas
expected to be impacted by heavy rain have higher FFG and lower
confidence in coverage of heavier rainfall totals.

Rainfall should come to an end by Friday except for far southern AR
as the sfc boundary pushes well to the south. Sfc flow out of the
E/NE and H500 flow out of the NW will promote cooler than normal
temperatures across the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Dry air filtering in behind the cold front will keep conditions
relatively dry and cool this weekend across Arkansas, which is a
welcome relief from the heat of early July and provides a brief
respite from the past 24 to 36 hours of heavy rain that fell across
much of north and central Arkansas. Highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the mid to upper 60s will make for a nice weekend for
those not recovering from or dealing with recent flooding.

By early next week, the consensus of model data indicates that an
upper level low pressure system moving south over the central plains
and towards Arkansas. Ahead of this system, humidity will increase
fairly quickly from Sunday night into Monday, setting the stage for
more unsettled/wet weather pattern from Monday through Wednesday of
the week ahead. The threat for severe weather appears to be fairly
low at this time, but with a slow moving upper level low pressure
system driving this unsettled period, certainly cannot rule out some
additional flooding especially now that soil moisture is quite high,
and additional rainfall will be much quicker to translate into
runoff as the soil can`t hold much additional water. This doesn`t
look like a widespread flash flood or general flooding setup, but
slow moving rain and storms with our wet antecedent condtions leave
for a somewhat small margin of error for what will and won`t cause
additional flooding problems.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Precip has diminished and largely moved out of the state as of
1720z with a few hours of dry weather expected. This will be short
lived with additional rain and thunderstorms likely to develop
across all but far northern AR terminals this evening into the
morning hours Thursday. This will lead to MVFR/IFR conditions
through much of the period. Winds will be variable in direction
and speed, with occasional strong gusts associated with TS
activity possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  84  63  83 /  40  20   0   0
Camden AR         71  82  68  84 /  80  80  30  20
Harrison AR       66  82  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    70  81  67  85 /  80  60  10  10
Little Rock   AR  74  84  68  85 /  80  50  10  10
Monticello AR     73  84  69  85 /  80  80  30  30
Mount Ida AR      68  80  64  83 /  80  70  10  10
Mountain Home AR  67  83  61  82 /  20  10   0   0
Newport AR        70  83  63  82 /  40  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  82  68  83 /  80  70  20  20
Russellville AR   72  84  66  86 /  60  30   0   0
Searcy AR         71  84  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
Stuttgart AR      73  82  68  82 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...67