158
FXUS64 KLZK 180609 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
100 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

After an overnight and early morning of significant rainfall
across portions of northern Arkansas, much quieter conditions are
in place for now across the area. Cloud cover across much of the
area in addition to the earlier precip has kept temperatures even
lower than previously thought. Afternoon visible satellite
imagery and regional radar data shows a few different MCVs and
associated boundaries with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, generally to the east and west of the state. An MCV
across central OK will continue to rotate its way toward the S/SE
which could help promote additional showers and storms across
western and southern portions of the state through the late
evening/overnight hours.

Through the overnight hours and into Thursday a series of H500
disturbances will continue to move across the state in the NW flow.
At the same time the sfc boundary to the north of the area will
drift south. These features will help to focus additional rain and
thunderstorm activity across the state through Thursday. Attm, the
main focus for activity should remain south of locations impacted by
heavy rain earlier today. But, high PWATs and overall slow storm
motion cold promote locally heavy rainfall totals where precip
occurs. Didn`t issue a flood watch given the most likely areas
expected to be impacted by heavy rain have higher FFG and lower
confidence in coverage of heavier rainfall totals.

Rainfall should come to an end by Friday except for far southern AR
as the sfc boundary pushes well to the south. Sfc flow out of the
E/NE and H500 flow out of the NW will promote cooler than normal
temperatures across the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Dry air filtering in behind the cold front will keep conditions
relatively dry and cool this weekend across Arkansas, which is a
welcome relief from the heat of early July and provides a brief
respite from the past 24 to 36 hours of heavy rain that fell across
much of north and central Arkansas. Highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the mid to upper 60s will make for a nice weekend for
those not recovering from or dealing with recent flooding.

By early next week, the consensus of model data indicates that an
upper level low pressure system moving south over the central plains
and towards Arkansas. Ahead of this system, humidity will increase
fairly quickly from Sunday night into Monday, setting the stage for
more unsettled/wet weather pattern from Monday through Wednesday of
the week ahead. The threat for severe weather appears to be fairly
low at this time, but with a slow moving upper level low pressure
system driving this unsettled period, certainly cannot rule out some
additional flooding especially now that soil moisture is quite high,
and additional rainfall will be much quicker to translate into
runoff as the soil can`t hold much additional water. This doesn`t
look like a widespread flash flood or general flooding setup, but
slow moving rain and storms with our wet antecedent condtions leave
for a somewhat small margin of error for what will and won`t cause
additional flooding problems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight, with some low
clouds/MVFR conditions in portions of central/southern Arkansas
toward Thursday morning. Low clouds should hold for several hours
before VFR conditions return in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up in central and
southern sections of the state through Thursday. The wind will be
light/variable overnight, and northeast at 6 to 12 knots on
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  84  63  83 /  40  20   0   0
Camden AR         70  82  68  84 /  70  80  30  30
Harrison AR       65  82  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    70  82  67  86 /  80  60  10  10
Little Rock   AR  73  84  69  86 /  70  40  10  10
Monticello AR     72  84  70  86 /  80  70  30  30
Mount Ida AR      68  81  64  84 /  80  60  10  10
Mountain Home AR  66  83  62  83 /  20  10   0   0
Newport AR        69  84  64  83 /  40  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  82  68  84 /  80  70  20  20
Russellville AR   71  85  66  87 /  50  30   0   0
Searcy AR         70  84  65  85 /  60  30  10  10
Stuttgart AR      72  82  68  82 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...46