905
FXUS64 KLZK 180830
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
330 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Looking at the pattern aloft, a large ridge will reside over the
western states, with troughing in most areas east of the Rockies.
This will result in a northwest wind flow over Arkansas, and the
end of oppressive heat for awhile.

Moisture surrounds a stalled front along the Gulf Coast as the
period begins. This will result in isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms today in central/southern sections of the
state.

Meanwhile, high pressure will build behind/to the north of the
front from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Moisture will
gradually get shunted to the south, with any precipitation
confined to the far southeast on Friday. Otherwise, dry conditions
are in the forecast elsewhere, with afternoon dewpoints in the
50s/60s instead of the muggy 70s of late.

As far as temperatures, below average readings are expected
today/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The long-term forecast period will be highlighted by a progressive
pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal chances for
precipitation for this time of the year.

SATURDAY:

A stationary boundary will be stalled across the Southeastern region
of the CONUS. The CWA and state of Arkansas will continue enjoying
the cooler and drier overall airmass in place behind the boundary
that is positioned southeast of the state. A low chance of a POP
along the far southeastern portion of the state does exist, but
latest guidance is complicit in keeping the state overwhelmingly dry
on Saturday. Expect mostly clear skies across the state with a few
clouds; additionally, a cooler and drier airmass will be occupying
the state keeping temperatures below normal for this time of the
year.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

The stationary boundary that will be stalled across the Southeastern
region of the CONUS from Saturday begins to retreat back into the
state during the day on Sunday and will remain parked across
Arkansas through the end of the weekend and remain stalled across
the CWA and state well into the new workweek. Expect continuous
chances each day for elevated POPs across the CWA and entire state
of Arkansas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
each day between Sunday and Wednesday with the stationary boundary
glued to the CWA. The positive tradeoff if you`re not a fan of rain
(even in late July) will be the temperatures that will be well below
normal for this time of the year as the rain-cooled air will keep
temperatures in check.

At the moment, looking at total rainfall amounts or QPF that is
forecast over the duration of the long-term forecast period, a range
of 0.50 to 1.50 inches appears to be a good statewide variance (with
some tolerance of a few spots with values a tad lower or higher of
this range) with latest model consensus. However, it is important to
remember this far out that these ranges are likely to change at
least slightly, if not by more as we become more confident closer to
the event. Usually, I would personally stray from providing a range
of values for a rainfall event this far in advance, but wanted to
provide some perspective of what is to be possibly expected in terms
of QPF for a July event.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight, with some low
clouds/MVFR conditions in portions of central/southern Arkansas
toward Thursday morning. Low clouds should hold for several hours
before VFR conditions return in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up in central and
southern sections of the state through Thursday. The wind will be
light/variable overnight, and northeast at 6 to 12 knots on
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  63  83  62 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         82  67  85  65 /  70  20  20   0
Harrison AR       82  59  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    84  67  86  64 /  40   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  84  68  85  68 /  40  10  10   0
Monticello AR     83  70  85  68 /  70  30  30  10
Mount Ida AR      83  64  85  61 /  40   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  61  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        84  63  82  64 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     83  68  84  66 /  60  20  10   0
Russellville AR   85  66  85  63 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         84  65  84  64 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      83  68  82  67 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...46