339
FXUS64 KLZK 190544 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The cold front will continue to make progress and move south of
the state by later today. Sfc ridging will build over the state in
its wake and help to usher in drier air and below normal
temperatures. Overnight lows across northern Arkansas are expected
to dip down into the 50s F tonight and Friday night, which is
about 10 degrees below normal. Daytime highs will be below normal
as well and with lower RH values in place, conditions outdoors
are expected to be quite comfortable for mid/late July

Rain chances remain limited in the short term and will largely be
confined to S/SE portions of the state. A mid-level disturbance
across east TX will continue rotating its way east through the
overnight hours. This could promote the development of isolated
showers and perhaps a few storms across southern AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Not many changes will be forth coming this afternoon and guidance
continues to advertise a rather progressive and unsettled pattern
for this time of the year. Models are in decent agreement in the
synoptic scale with a few timing differences that overall should
have no major impacts on our sensible weather.

Pattern features general troughing over the region through the
period and overall unsettled conditions as some form of western
CONUS ridging continues. On the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary
will be moving into the southern part of the state early in the
period and remaining somewhere in the state until very late when it
does begin to advance more to the north.

The combination of the troughiness and the boundary support
precipitation chances through the majority of the period. While
precipitation will be possible at just about anytime, it will be
scattered in nature and diurnally driven with the highest POPS
during the warmest time of the day. Widespread severe weather is not
expected but a few stronger storms and localized flooding can not be
excluded.

Temperatures will be running below seasonal averages and may not
even hit 80 degrees until very late in the period. Overnight lows
are expected to drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening. There
will be some mid/high clouds and spotty showers in southeast
Arkansas. Otherwise, dry conditions will be noted. The wind will be
light northeast overnight, and northeast at 6 to 12 knots on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  83  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         67  86  66  89 /  20  10   0  10
Harrison AR       59  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    67  87  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  69  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     70  85  69  88 /  20  30  10  20
Mount Ida AR      64  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  61  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        63  82  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  84  67  87 /  10  10   0  10
Russellville AR   66  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         65  84  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      68  83  68  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...46