857
FXUS64 KLZK 201952
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad
trough over the central CONtinental United States (CONUS). The
large scale trough was technically positively tilted, not that it
really matters in this context as it`s not moving much, but rather
serves as a conduit for shortwave troughs to move across the
country. While the waveform of the large trough changes
characteristics over the next 7 days, for all intents and purposes
it doesn`t really move much with respect to Arkansas, setting the
tone for the entire forecast package.

With large scale troughing in place and multiple shortwave troughs
moving eastward through the trough axis, a cooler than normal and
wetter than normal forecast will define the short term forecast
period through Monday. We`ve had cool weather the past couple of
days, so that box will remain checked tomorrow and Monday, but
it`s the wetter than normal box that will start showing up Sunday
afternoon as rain moves into the state from the northwest. Not
much rain is expected on Sunday, and the coverage will likely be
limited to scattered rain showers with isolated storms, but on and
off rain may interrupt some outdoor activities across the
northwestern half of the state tomorrow afternoon.

On Monday, southerly flow is expected to bring better rain
chances and higher amounts up from Louisiana. This will place
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms over the southern
half of the state. Rainfall totals aren`t expected to be heavy,
but a good quarter to half inch of rain is likely over these areas
on Monday. Farther to the north, rain chances aren`t as high, but
rain remains in the forecast, especially Monday afternoon and
evening. The coverage and rainfall totals are expected to be much
lower, so more of a hit and miss scenario at least through Monday.
Rain chances and the associated cloud cover will keep temperatures
below normal for late July, which is always something to be
thankful for in the middle of summer in Arkansas.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The overall pattern is expected to change very little through the
long term portion of the forecast. H500 ridging will be in place
over the western states as well as the southeast, and troughing in
most areas east of the Rockies. Given persistent troughing oriented
from the Great Lakes southwestward toward the state, the weather
looks unsettled, and temperatures will be near to below normal for
late July.

As the period begins, a boundary from the Gulf Coast will be lifting
slowly to the north, with increasing low level moisture. A mid-
level system in the central/southern Plains will wobble to the
east and eventually wash out. Across the state and nearby areas
where the H500 flow turns from NW to SW, a steady stream of
disturbances will traverse the area.

This will provide scattered showers and thunderstorms pretty much
every day, with coverage the greatest during the afternoon/early
evening. Any severe weather/flash flooding will be localized at
most. The current forecast calls for the most rain over
central/southern Arkansas through the end of the period. This is
where one to two inch amounts are possible, and some totals could be
higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  86  67  85 /   0  20  20  50
Camden AR         67  91  69  85 /   0  20  30  70
Harrison AR       64  78  63  81 /  20  50  30  50
Hot Springs AR    69  89  69  87 /   0  20  20  60
Little Rock   AR  70  88  71  86 /   0  20  30  50
Monticello AR     70  91  71  87 /   0  20  30  60
Mount Ida AR      66  85  67  84 /  10  30  30  60
Mountain Home AR  65  81  64  82 /  10  40  30  50
Newport AR        68  85  69  84 /   0  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     68  88  70  85 /   0  10  20  50
Russellville AR   69  85  69  85 /  10  30  30  50
Searcy AR         68  86  68  85 /   0  20  30  50
Stuttgart AR      69  86  71  84 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...Cavanaugh