265
FXUS64 KLZK 161735
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions at all sites presently. CU field developing early
this afternoon across the central and southern TAF sites, so
including sct layer at 035-040 at those locations.

Based on latest HRRR/RAP trends, looks like convection building
over northern AR and drifting down from MO late this afternoon
into the overnight hours will be a bit more prominent than
previously anticipated. I have updated POPs in the grids and
altered TAFs to include this change. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty how far south convection will reach by morning, so for
HOT, ADF, and LIT I included some PROB30 convection in the 12-18Z
time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Much of the Mid-South rmns under the influence of a west to east
mid level ridge axis. This scenario wl set the stage for another
day of dangerous heat and humidity acrs the Natural State. High
temps today wl top out in the mid to upper 90s in many areas, with
assocd max aftn heat indices ranging from 105 to 114. No changes
were made to the existing heat headlines. Also, convective chcs
today look few and far between.

Models rmn in good agreement this mrng showing a shift in the upper
lvl flow pattern, as the aforementioned upper rdg retrogrades and
amplifies ovr the western states. This wl allow for a large scale
upper trof to set up from the Great Lakes region back into the
Southern Plains and Mid-South.

The resulting northwest mid lvl steering flow wl eventually bring a
CDFNT into AR later in the period. Increasing chcs for rain and
thunderstorms wl also occur along and ahead of the front. Some of
the CAM solutions cont to struggle with these trends in the near
term, so fcst confidence regarding PoPs and QPF rmn low.

Ongoing upstream convection acrs part of KS and northern OK may
eventually send a lingering outflow bndry to the southeast later
today. This feature could provide a focus for scattered convection
to form durg the peak heating hrs, with most of the activity staying
north of the FA. Eventually, coverage wl incrs over north AR tngt as
the CDFNT apchs fm the NW.

The CDFNT wl cont to drop sloly southward into the state Wed and Wed
night. Showers and thunderstorms wl rmn likely along and ahead of
the bndry. While organized severe wx is not anticipated, heavy
rainfall could become a concern, leading to localized flash flooding.
Abundant cloud cover wl keep the north half of the FA in the 80s
for highs Wed, with 90s common further south. Parts of southern AR
may need another Heat Advisory for Wed aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper lvl trof will be in position over Arkansas during the
majority of the long-term forecast period. In response, this upper
lvl feature in cohesion with sfc features will be instrumental in
providing the state with above normal chances for precipitation and
a high probability of below normal temperatures over the long-term
forecast with respect to both low and high temperatures.

At the beginning of the long-term forecast period, on Thursday, a
sfc cold front will be tracking across Arkansas from north to south.
Expect shower and isolated thunderstorm chances across the state
during the day on Thursday with higher confidence in activity to
increase southward across the state throughout the day. On Friday,
as the frontal boundary pushes into Louisiana, the opportunity for
shower and thunderstorm activity will be reserved to southern
Arkansas. Expect overall clearing into the day on Friday with a
drier and cooler airmass in place across the CWA with the exception
of southern Arkansas where the FROPA will provide POP chances to
persist into Friday midday before becoming predominately absent from
the forecast on Friday.

Into Saturday, the front will quickly stall across Louisiana for a
brief period before retreating back north and eventually stalling
completely across Arkansas and increasing chances of POPs overall on
Sunday and Monday with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms
returning to the forecast. Expect dry conditions to remain for most
of Saturday before the retreating boundary moves back toward the CWA
moving from south to north before becoming parked across the I-40
corridor as a stationary front during the day on Sunday. The
remainder of the forecast period on Sunday and Monday can expect
increased POP chances with a high probability of showers and
thunderstorms across the entire CWA with the decent tradeoff being
temperatures that will be below normal.

The long-term forecast period will be an active one with increased
chances for POPs overall, but with a nice tradeoff of temperatures
that will be below normal with respect to low and high temperatures
due to the initial FROPA passage with a drier and cooler airmass
behind the boundary, then as the boundary retreats back into the
state, rain-cooled air along with adequate cloud cover will keep
temperatures in check and a few degrees below normal for this time
of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  89  69  82 /  60  70  60  30
Camden AR         76  97  71  84 /   0  30  60  70
Harrison AR       72  85  65  81 /  80  70  40  20
Hot Springs AR    77  95  71  84 /  10  40  70  60
Little Rock   AR  79  94  74  84 /  20  40  70  60
Monticello AR     78  97  73  84 /   0  30  60  80
Mount Ida AR      75  94  69  83 /  20  40  70  60
Mountain Home AR  73  84  66  81 /  80  80  40  20
Newport AR        75  89  70  81 /  40  60  60  30
Pine Bluff AR     78  95  72  82 /  10  30  70  60
Russellville AR   77  92  71  84 /  70  60  60  40
Searcy AR         75  92  71  83 /  40  50  60  50
Stuttgart AR      78  92  73  81 /  10  40  70  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-052-053-056-
057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-
240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054-055-121-122-
130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...53