482
FXUS64 KLZK 071802
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
102 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Regional infrared satellite imagery depicted high clouds
streaming across the state from the SW early this Sunday morning.
Temperatures were starting out in the mid 60s to lower 70s with
highs anticipated to top out in the lower to mid 90s this
afternoon. No significant weather is expected through much of
today, however a warm front will be in the process of lifting Nwrd
across Srn AR into the afternoon hours. Some scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over far Srn sections of the
state in association with the frontal boundary.

Synoptically, the pattern will be defined by a digging/deepening
upper trough over the plains states with two upper ridges located
invof CA and along the Wrn Atlantic. The ridge over the Wrn
Atlantic does have a compact low pressure system co-located within
an expansive area of ridging. Zooming in closer to AR, a weak
frontal boundary will slide into far NW AR in conjunction with
this digging trough. Winds will switch back around to the S/SE at
most locations today and moisture will rebound in response to the
changing airmass.

Tonight into Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will dip
further into NW sections of AR sparking showers and thunderstorms
across a large part of the state. PoP chances will be greatest on
Monday with rainfall amounts ranging from a couple tenths of an
inch over SE AR to possibly 1-1.5 inches over SW AR. Rainfall
amounts over Cntrl and Nrn AR could range from around a quarter to
three- quarters of an inch.

While rainfall is ongoing across AR due to a stalled frontal
system in addition to passing upper level energy, the remnants of
Beryl will be moving towards AR from the SW on Monday. Moisture
from this system will enter SW AR as early as Monday afternoon and
evening. The remnants of Beryl will be in the process of
accelerating as the upper level trough scoops up the system just
ahead of the stalled cold front. While the exact track and speed
of this storm remains uncertain, the main impacts across AR are
expected to be for the potential of heavy rainfall leading to
areas of flash flooding. With any land-falling tropical system,
there will be the potential for tornadoes for locations N and E of
the center track, so we will be monitoring that threat as well as
the event nears. High temperatures are expected to be cooler on
Monday with readings topping out in the largely in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Latest forecast data and official NHC track show the center of the
remnants of Beryl entering the SWRN corner of the state at the start
of the long term period...lifting NE generally along the I-30/US-67
corridor during the daytime hrs on Tue. The remnants of Beryl
will then exit to the NE of AR by late Tue evening/night. The
primary forecast focus with the remnants of Beryl will be some
potential areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding...along with some increased threat for some SVR Wx. The
SVR threat will be confined to brief tornadoes due to increased
low level SRH...along with some potential for damaging winds
outside any tornado threat. Rainfall amounts with the remnants of
Beryl will be on the order of 1 to 4 inches in vicinity of the SFC
low. Locally higher amounts could be seen within the heavy
rainfall axis.

After the remnants of Beryl exit by late Tue night...some lingering
POPs are forecast on Wed before all energy moves out of the area.
Beyond Beryl...mainly dry conditions are expected through the rest
of the forecast...with temps warming back up from the rain cooled
early part of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

In the near term, the ongoing convection acrs eastern OK conts
working to the east. CAMS cont to struggle with overall trends and
coverage of this activity this aftn. Thus, have not included any
mention of TS in the fcst, but wl cont to monitor. VFR conds are
expected to persist thru much of the PD. Moisture assocd with
Beryl wl cont to advance into the region tngt and Mon, with MVFR
ceilings returning to western areas Mon mrng. Kept PROB30 groups
later tngt and Mon mrng as fcst confidence rmns low.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...44