780
FXUS64 KLZK 171156
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
656 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ongoing convective complex conts to slowly work to the ESE acrs
northern and parts of central AR, primarily assocd with an MCV
that moved out of SW MO late on Tue. While this initial activity
has shown a weakening trend, additional storms were quickly
forming to the west and northwest.

Have seen impressive rainfall rates/amounts in some areas since late
Tue evening, with radar estimates between 6 and 10 inches in some
areas. CAMS cont to move this system off to the east this mrng.
Meanwhile, additional convection has been forming acrs southern MO
and northeast OK over the last few hours, ahead of the synoptic
CDFNT, and aided by an increasing low lvl jet.

Data suggest that areal coverage wl cont to incrs thru daybreak and
eventually congeal into a new complex that wl impact some of the
same areas that have seen heavy rainfall overnight. Posted a Flood
Watch for the northern third of the FA thru noontime as the
additional new rainfall wl likely lead to flooding in a short
amount of time.

High temp fcst today is going to be quite the challenge. Went ahead
and trended max temps closer to the HRRR guidance. Still appears
that south AR wl warm well into the 90s, with aftn heat indices
reaching advisory criteria.

The aforementioned CDFNT is still fcst to work slowly southward acrs
much of AR thru Thu, with contd chcs of showers and storms along and
south of the boundary. Meanwhile, drier air wl filter into the state
behind the fnt, with PoPs quickly diminishing. Looks like most of

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The long-term forecast period will be marred by a progressive
pattern of below normal temperatures and above normal chances for
precipitation.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

A frontal boundary during the day on Friday will be positioned
between the Arkansas/Louisiana border and the I-20 corridor across
Louisiana and become a stationary boundary stalled across central
Louisiana into the day on Saturday. Expect shower and thunderstorms
chances to be present across southern Arkansas on both Friday and
Saturday given the close proximity of this boundary.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:

The frontal boundary stalled across Louisiana will lift back into
the Natural State and remain positioned across the state for the
remainder of the long-term forecast period keeping shower and
thunderstorm chances elevated. Expect several days of increased
chances of POPs as a stalled frontal boundary will be positioned
across the state.

At the moment, rainfall totals on the long-term period do not look
to be too impressive as far as amounting to significant QPF leading
to any flooding concerns; however, any rain in July is usually
welcomed by most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ongoing convection wl cont to impact northern and central AR fcst
sites thru mid to late mrng, with MVFR/IFR conds where heavier
storms occur. Looks like there wl be a break in the storms thru
most of the aftn, with more storms moving fm the west later this
aftn into tngt. Flight conds wl deteriorate once again, with
primarily MVFR/IFR conds.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-
103-112-113-123-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...44