483
FXUS61 KLWX 111356
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
956 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build from the Midwest to the Mid-
Atlantic through Monday. This area of high pressure will
gradually shift toward New England during the middle of the week
while a few weak upper level disturbances pass. A low pressure
system may reach the area by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 9:30 AM, KLWX radar loop is showing returns in the
southeastern portions of the forecast area. Dry air is likely
preventing the majority of precipitation from reaching the
ground, but traffic cameras showed wet roads in that portion of
the area. Added some sprinkles to the forecast for the next hour
with conditions expected to dry up after that. No other changes
were made to the previous forecast package. Previous Discussion
Follows:

Secondary front is pushing southeast of the area early this
morning. Mid to upper 50s dew points have pushed into
northwestern parts of the forecast area and will spread eastward
to encompass much of the area by this afternoon. A jet streak
aloft will result in some mid and high level clouds through the
morning with clearing this afternoon. With some modest cold
advection, highs will be a little cooler today in the lower to
mid 80s.

Surface high pressure will extend eastward into the area from
the Midwest tonight while an upper level low moves east from
Quebec. Mostly clear skies and light winds will promote
efficient cooling tonight. Most rural areas west of I-95 will
fall into the 50s, and there could even be some 40s along the
Alleghenies. The urban centers and bayshore will remain in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will remain west of the area Monday and Monday
night. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue.
However some mid and high level clouds will cross at times with
the jet axis nearly overhead.

A shortwave approaching from the west will sharpen the longwave
trough Tuesday while the broad weak surface high gradually
expands eastward. There are still varying solutions as to
whether there will be enough low level moisture and forcing to
squeeze out some showers during this time. PoPs are 20 percent
or less for most of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. With
relatively low dew points remaining in place, there will be
little to no instability and thunderstorms appear unlikely.
Temperatures will remain nearly steady state, with highs in the
lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday will continue to shift further east
offshore. Mostly dry conditions are expected for the day with
highs in the low 80s across the lower elevations with mid 60 to
low 70s expected for the mountains. A large mid-to-upper level
low pressure system will approach the area by late in the week,
increasing chances locally for showers and thunderstorms.
Chances especially increase by Friday and into Saturday but
overall coverage and intensity will be fairly low at this time
but there is still some spread in the guidance. High
temperatures during the period will be fairly average for this
time of year with overnight lows dropping down into the upper
50s (mountains) to mid 60s further east towards the waters.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will gradually build in from the west through
Monday. Any ceilings will be of the mid and high level variety,
and the airmass appears too dry to support nocturnal fog at the
TAF sites. Winds will waver some between west and northwest
(perhaps briefly southerly at CHO this afternoon) but should
remain less than 10 kt.

An upper level disturbance will move overhead Tuesday. Isolated
showers are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night, but overall VFR
conditions will prevail with light northwest winds.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday with a few
isolated showers possible, especially across the western terminals
like KMRB and KCHO for a brief period. Winds out of the NE on
Wednesday will shift more southeasterly as an area of high pressure
continues to move further offshore to the northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
A secondary front has pushed through the waters. Northerly winds
have been gusting to around 20 knots for a couple hours behind
the front, but it appears to be too brief of a period to warrant
an advisory (handled with Marine Weather Statement). Any
lingering gusts should subside by sunrise.

West to northwest winds will continue through Tuesday. Another
brief push of northerly winds could channel down the bay
tonight, but will likely be 15 knots or less. Otherwise light
winds and little to no thunderstorm chances are expected through
the first part of the week.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday with high
pressure nearby keeping the gusts below 10 knots for the most part.
Cannot rule out a stray shower for the waters but most areas should
remain dry mid-week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/AVS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...ADS/ADM
MARINE...ADS/ADM