020
FXUS64 KLUB 131913
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
213 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An upper level high situated over northern NM continues to drive the
weather picture here in West Texas on this warm summer day. WV
imagery shows some weak lift rotating about the NERN periphery of
the high making its way out of OK into the Permian Basin. Despite
the presence of this area of lift and a region of ectomorphic CAPE
in the 15-30kft range, a strong subsidence inversion will keep
the already scant moisture for cloud development from being able
to access that lift. The top of the boundary layer will continue
running around 8-9kft AGL. The result of these comorbid factors
(for rain) is a dry forecast for our part of the state. As such,
for the remainder of the day, expect similar to last evening.

Late tonight, a surge of near surface moisture will move up this way
from the hill country resulting in slightly more humid conditions on
Sunday morning. This will serve to increase overnight lows a few
degrees over what we saw last night. As the boundary layer begins
to overturn into Sunday afternoon, the extra moisture will mix
out rather effectively with dewpoints returning to values similar
to this afternoon. High temperatures for Sunday will be similar to
today plus a degree or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

No significant changes have been made to the previous forecast. Hot
and dry conditions remain expected through Monday under a broad
upper ridge. A shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies may lead to a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the far southern
Panhandle late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A surface cold front
will bring the greatest storm chances this week. Guidance is not as
agressive with storm development as yesterday with the
aforementioned shortwave cut off from the main trough associated
with the larger upper low centered over Ontario. This subsequently
will mean lesser forcing, however a more moist SE surface flow will
develop behind the front and enough instability will build during
the otherwise hot and sunny day to trigger at least a threat for
scattered thunderstorms across much of the region. Uncertainty
exists thereafter, however a building upper ridge to the west would
help to curtail any further storm activity into next weekend.
Temperatures look to stay relatively cooler after the aforementioned
front tracks through, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Thursday
through next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR next 24 hours. While not reflected in the TAF due to light
speeds, the wind direction is expected to become more
southwesterly overnight given the weak pressure gradient becoming
southerly as temperatures warm late Sunday morning. Expect plenty
of low level turbulence this afternoon below 11000 MSL where a
weak temperature inversion will cap the thermal bubble machine.
Rides will improve around 01Z as the scattered clouds dissipate.

For those looking to stay cool whilst flying...
This afternoon, you can use this equation to approximate the OAT
up to 11kft.

T(degC) = 34-(3.4*((MSLALT/1000)-3)) where MSLALT is altitude
above MSL in feet. Should be within a degree or so. Stay cool and
check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26