Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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623 FXUS64 KLUB 140710 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 210 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Another uneventful day is in store. The upper high currently centered over Colorado will remain in place. This will help to keep convection chances low and temps on the warm side. Surface winds will remain out of the south through most of the day thanks to surface lee troughing. Surface troughing will push eastward across the Central Plains in response to an upper shortwave pushing across the Northern Plains. This will veer overnight winds to the southwest. Highs today will be in the mid/upper 90s to 100 while high surface dewpoints will help keep overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The main theme in the extended realm involves a welcome pattern change toward cooler temps and regional rain chances by midweek. Until then, we remain hot and dry under the eastern periphery of a subtropical high. Despite this high weakening and flattening on Monday in response to broad troughing over the northern plains, our thicknesses jump courtesy of H7 winds veering from E to SW which should fuel our hottest highs since earlier this month. This heat lingers into Tuesday until cyclonic NW flow establishes itself over much of the southern plains thereafter as the upper high relocates to the Great Basin and amplifies. As early as Tuesday night, this NW flow may be robust enough to transport storms out of nern NM and into our NW zones, and perhaps farther if the NAM is correct with its earlier FROPA. PoPs grow in coverage and quantity by Wednesday with the arrival of a weak cold front and plume of monsoonal moisture. This theme remains largely intact through next weekend with daily chances for precip and moist upslope flow. Other than capping mention of PoPs to 50% for mid/late week, no other changes were needed at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...51