074
FXUS64 KLUB 101940
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
240 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The upper high currently overhead will remain in place through
tonight and tomorrow. This will, overall, continue the trend of dry
and warmer. There are, however, some exceptions. A somewhat similar
setup to last night is expected tonight in regards to a shortwave
trough rotating along the upper edge of the high and creating
prolonged convection. In general, models are much less enthused with
the strength of the shortwave. The shortwave, currently over
northern Arizona, isn`t too impressive but is developing some
isolated convection over northern Arizona. As it is weaker in
appearance than last night`s shortwave, PoPs have been trimmed sans
a mention of slight chance across our northeastern zones tonight.
Temps will warm back into the upper 90s to near 100 across the FA
tomorrow thanks to the persistent upper high.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The overall hot and dry theme of the extended period remains the
same through the middle of next week, then greater uncertainty
begins to creep in to the forecast late Wednesday through Friday.

A broad upper ridge will be centered roughly over North Texas and
ArkLaTex regions Monday and Tuesday which will bring subsident
flow aloft and warm mid-level temps to our forecast area. This
will result in hot temperatures with highs mainly in the middle
90s to about 102 or so on the Caprock and around 100 to 106 in
the Rolling Plains. These temps could approach Heat Advisory
conditions in the Rolling Plains, mainly from the Caprock Canyons
area through Childress County. The possible exception to the dry
conditions will be across the far southwest Texas Panhandle, which
being on the western periphery of the upper ridge, will have a
small chance (<20%) of the daily monsoon showers in NM sneaking
across the state line each evening. Wednesday into Thursday, the
GEFS and ENS camps are roughly split on whether or not the upper
ridge will hold firm over West Texas, or a shortwave trough will
pass over the area bringing at least some temporary relief to the
heat and a period of better rain chances. Even in the GEFS case,
the ridge does wobble east which could bring a slight cooling
trend and better rain chances to the west, but this trend would be
more pronounced if the ENS prevails. The NBM has picked up on
higher, mentionable PoPs across the forecast area Thursday
although it remains quite warm. It`s too early to lean one way or
the other at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

There is a slight chance for convection after midnight at CDS. If
any convection affects the terminal, CIGs and VIS could drop
temporarily to MVFR. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail outside
of convection.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...51