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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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074 FXUS64 KLUB 101940 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The upper high currently overhead will remain in place through tonight and tomorrow. This will, overall, continue the trend of dry and warmer. There are, however, some exceptions. A somewhat similar setup to last night is expected tonight in regards to a shortwave trough rotating along the upper edge of the high and creating prolonged convection. In general, models are much less enthused with the strength of the shortwave. The shortwave, currently over northern Arizona, isn`t too impressive but is developing some isolated convection over northern Arizona. As it is weaker in appearance than last night`s shortwave, PoPs have been trimmed sans a mention of slight chance across our northeastern zones tonight. Temps will warm back into the upper 90s to near 100 across the FA tomorrow thanks to the persistent upper high. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The overall hot and dry theme of the extended period remains the same through the middle of next week, then greater uncertainty begins to creep in to the forecast late Wednesday through Friday. A broad upper ridge will be centered roughly over North Texas and ArkLaTex regions Monday and Tuesday which will bring subsident flow aloft and warm mid-level temps to our forecast area. This will result in hot temperatures with highs mainly in the middle 90s to about 102 or so on the Caprock and around 100 to 106 in the Rolling Plains. These temps could approach Heat Advisory conditions in the Rolling Plains, mainly from the Caprock Canyons area through Childress County. The possible exception to the dry conditions will be across the far southwest Texas Panhandle, which being on the western periphery of the upper ridge, will have a small chance (<20%) of the daily monsoon showers in NM sneaking across the state line each evening. Wednesday into Thursday, the GEFS and ENS camps are roughly split on whether or not the upper ridge will hold firm over West Texas, or a shortwave trough will pass over the area bringing at least some temporary relief to the heat and a period of better rain chances. Even in the GEFS case, the ridge does wobble east which could bring a slight cooling trend and better rain chances to the west, but this trend would be more pronounced if the ENS prevails. The NBM has picked up on higher, mentionable PoPs across the forecast area Thursday although it remains quite warm. It`s too early to lean one way or the other at this point. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 There is a slight chance for convection after midnight at CDS. If any convection affects the terminal, CIGs and VIS could drop temporarily to MVFR. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail outside of convection. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...51