952
FXUS64 KLUB 141102
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
602 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Another uneventful day is in store. The upper high currently
centered over Colorado will remain in place. This will help to keep
convection chances low and temps on the warm side. Surface winds
will remain out of the south through most of the day thanks to
surface lee troughing. Surface troughing will push eastward across
the Central Plains in response to an upper shortwave pushing across
the Northern Plains. This will veer overnight winds to the
southwest. Highs today will be in the mid/upper 90s to 100 while
high surface dewpoints will help keep overnight lows in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The main theme in the extended realm involves a welcome pattern
change toward cooler temps and regional rain chances by midweek.
Until then, we remain hot and dry under the eastern periphery of a
subtropical high. Despite this high weakening and flattening on
Monday in response to broad troughing over the northern plains, our
thicknesses jump courtesy of H7 winds veering from E to SW which
should fuel our hottest highs since earlier this month. This heat
lingers into Tuesday until cyclonic NW flow establishes itself over
much of the southern plains thereafter as the upper high relocates
to the Great Basin and amplifies. As early as Tuesday night, this NW
flow may be robust enough to transport storms out of nern NM and
into our NW zones, and perhaps farther if the NAM is correct with
its earlier FROPA. PoPs grow in coverage and quantity by Wednesday
with the arrival of a weak cold front and plume of monsoonal
moisture. This theme remains largely intact through next weekend
with daily chances for precip and moist upslope flow. Other than
capping mention of PoPs to 50% for mid/late week, no other changes
were needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51