879
FXUS64 KLUB 092314
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A trough, which has more or less been parked directly overhead of
the CWA for the last week, is creating dominant northwesterly flow.
This flow is keeping temperatures comfortably below the average for
this time of the year and also allowing for the prospect of
late evening storms throughout the region.

Satellite water vapor imagery shows an area of modest upward motion
moving southeast out of Colorado towards the area. This, in
combination with the northwesterly flow over Northern New Mexico has
helped to fuel thunderstorm formation across the higher terrain of
ERN NM. These thunderstorms look to be relatively high based and
will track SE toward the Northwest part of our CWA. The hail threat
is marginal with this activity but CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg + 25
KT of bulk shear could allow for some sub-severe hail with the
stronger activity. There is the possibility of some strong winds as
individual storms gust out.  We do expect at least some degree of
pulse-like behavior within a multi-cellular cluster. Confidence on
these storms persisting into the night is quite low.

Areas who are not influenced by the scattered storms tonight will
experience a very pleasant night, with comfortable temperatures and
calm winds.

These storms will serve as an appetizer to tomorrow`s weather, which
looks to be more widespread and bring more rainfall potential to the
area. Instability profiles look marginally better than tonight with
CAPE estimated from 800-1000 J/kg along with 25-30 KT of bulk shear.
Some of the stronger storms could generate quarters and winds to
60 mph though, by in large, it is suspected that coverage will
likely keep storm intensity somewhat uniform and tempered. Locally
heavy rainfall could manifest with individual storms, but
widespread flooding issues are not expected at this time.

Watson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

By 00Z Thursday, a 500mb low is expected to be located over the
Great Lakes, and an upper-level ridge will continue to dominate
the Southwest US. These features should propagate slowly eastward
through the period, with the forecast area increasingly under the
influence of the ridge by Monday/Day 7. Some guidance indicates
that a weakness in the ridge over Mexico could extend towards the
CWA on Saturday, possibly bringing weak forcing to the area
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Convection may be ongoing at 00Z Thursday, particularly in the
South Plains and far southern TXPH, aided by weak forcing from a
subtle 500mb shortwave moving along the periphery of the ridge.
However, any thunderstorms should diminish overnight as the
shortwave moves south of the forecast area and the boundary layer
decouples. A slight chance for precipitation also exists across
the South Plains Thursday afternoon into the early evening:
despite a less favorable upper-level environment, convective
temperatures are expected to be reached, coinciding with 700-1000
J/kg of CAPE. Weak steering flow implies a pulse-like storm mode
for any convection that forms, though updrafts will have a
difficult time surviving given the lack of mid-level moisture.
Precipitation chances fall after sunset without any favorable
upper-level dynamics to sustain thunderstorms into the late
evening and overnight.

Temperatures are expected to be on a slow upward trend, with highs
generally in the mid to upper 90s, but the potential weakness in the
ridge on Saturday may knock down Saturday`s high temperatures by a
couple degrees. This feature could also bring precipitation chances
to the forecast area, but confidence is too low to add mentionable
PoPs at this time. Temperatures should be back above average by
Monday as the ridge continues to drift closer to the CWA and limits
any meaningful precipitation chances.

/DF

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of
this TAF period. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico early this
evening will slide to the southeast overnight. These storms will
be dissipating as they approach LBB and PVW tonight so it remains
unclear if any direct impacts will be observed at these two
airports outside of a wind shift to the northwest. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
region tomorrow afternoon and confidence is higher in this round
of thunderstorms therefore a VCTS mention has been included at LBB
and PVW. Prevailing thunderstorm mention will probably be needed
at these two sites once confidence on timing increases.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26/KW
LONG TERM....30/DF
AVIATION...26/KW