Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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828 FXUS64 KLUB 141929 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Upper-level ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern in the short term with dry and warm conditions. After our warm day today temperatures will remain mild tonight thanks in part to surface winds remaining around 10 mph as a LLJ develops early tomorrow morning. The ridge will flatten and weaken a bit tomorrow but with 850 mb temperatures and overall thickness values increasing temperatures will actually end up a few degrees warmer than today ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. The hottest temperatures are expected across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains where high temperatures near 105 degrees are expected hence a Heat Advisory has been issued for this area from 1 pm until 7 pm Monday. Skies will remain mostly sunny with south southwest winds around 10-15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Much of Tuesday looks to be dry as well, before an upper shortwave and associated surface cold front approaches the area by evening. There is still model uncertainty with regards to the exact timing, however storm chances look to be generally confined to the far southern Panhandle with instability diminishing after sunset. A more moist, SE surface flow will develop behind the front and bring the greatest precipitation chances late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Stronger capping looks to occur thereafter into next weekend with a ridge building to the west. Although NBM is still broad-brushing the chance PoPs, this has still been retained in current forecast given the continued SE surface flow (albeit light) and N-NW flow aloft. Nonetheless, relatively cooler temperatures will persist with the southeasterlies. Highs in the mid 80s to near 90 are expected Thursday through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for >026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...58