700
FXUS64 KLUB 101131
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Convection off the higher terrain of New Mexico Tuesday evening had
weakened earlier this morning but since then another small
cluster/line of convection had formed across the northwest South
Plains as of 0730Z. These showers and storms now appear to be
weakening via radar/IR imagery as well and doubt they will reach the
central South Plains before dissipating, but time will tell of
course.

Otherwise, fairly typical July weather pattern continues across the
CONUS this morning with continental tropical high pressure
dominating the southwestern US and a persistent trough over the
upper midwest and Great Lakes. This leaves West Texas under weak
northwest flow, particularly below 500 mb. Global model suites have
been advertising a subtle short wave/jet max advecting out of
Colorado and onto the southern high plains this afternoon/evening
within the northwest flow. All model suites, including CAMs, have
really backed off on convective signal, from previous
solutions, across the forecast area for late afternoon and evening.
It now appears that more of a scenario similar to Tuesday will
evolve with convection firing once again off of the higher terrain
and advecting/propagating mainly across western portions of the
forecast area this evening. It is obviously not out of the question
that isolated storms could form ahead of the main convective
development late this afternoon as well. Adequate
CAPE/DCAPE/Inverted V soundings will support marginally severe wind
gusts with any storms that form and some heavy rain is also possible
given expected slow storm motions. Again, similar to this morning,
would expect convection to slowly wane by late evening/early
Thursday morning.

Outside of shower and thunder chances, it should be a pleasant
summer day and evening with generally light wind and temperatures
around seasonal normals across the forecast domain.

JW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Mid/upper-level troughing will continue to dampen as it shifts
eastward into the Mississippi River Valley on Thursday as a
subtropical ridge centered over the Desert Southwest continues to
amplify. The CWA will remain beneath the inflection point of these
features where a broad channel of difluent, mid-level flow will
exist while bereft of any jet streaks directly overhead. The
component of weak, northerly, mid-level flow will maintain the
elevated mixed layer (EML) above the well-mixed boundary-layer; and
the size and depth of the EML will be similar to the previous day
(i.e., tall and skinny with <1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE).

At the surface, a diffuse trough should be located near or west of
the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment, with flow remaining veered
area-wide as a weak cyclone forms near northwestern Oklahoma beneath
the base of the 250 mb trough departing the region as temperatures
rise into the lower-middle 90s area-wide. Otherwise, there are no
indications for a viable surface boundary to serve as a focus for
the initiation of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon with open
moist sector initiation expected to be the source as convective
temperatures are reached. The low, blended PoPs have been
maintained with an expectation for isolated, pulse-like, single- and
multi-cellular convection to develop across the Caprock and portions
of the Rolling Plains as the mean wind vector remains less than 10
kt. Coverage of storms could become widely-scattered across the
western South Plains nearest the surface trough to the west, but
organized convection is not expected. Thunderstorm chances will wane
entirely after dark as the boundary-layer decouples.

Continuity in the remainder of the extended forecast period compared
to the previous assessments is intact with doldrum-like conditions
developing over the weekend. High temperatures will gradually rise
into the middle 90s this weekend and into the upper 90s early next
week as geopotential heights increase from the expansion and phasing
of the subtropical ridges over the western U.S. and the eastern
Atlantic Basin. Low PoPs have been introduced by mid-week next week
across portions of the forecast area as there are some indications
for a barotropic low to rotate towards or into the southern Rocky
Mountains, which could result in the potential for diurnally-driven
storms. Probabilities remain low owing to limited predictability in
potential precipitation placement associated with barotropic
airmasses.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

TAFs VFR through 11/12Z. Model signals for -TSRA after 21Z
continue to fade and while chances of a storm affecting KLBB or
KPVW are non-zero, confidence is low in this occurring. Variable
wind at 6 knots or less will become more steady from the south
after 18Z but remain light through the period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13