415
FXUS64 KLUB 102315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

An upper-level ridge was evident on water vapor imagery over the
Desert Southwest this afternoon, along with a trough over the north-
central US. The forecast area sits between these two features
through the short term period, though the ridge should begin to
exert more influence tomorrow as it drifts eastward. In the
meantime, a piece of energy lagging behind the trough should
reach the CWA by this evening, providing subtle forcing.

Pulse thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon in the southern
Rolling Plains, where convective temperatures have been reached.
Convection may also develop later this afternoon along a subtle
differential heating boundary near the I-27 corridor or any other
areas that reach convective temp. Inverted-v soundings with DCAPE
>1000 J/kg will be widespread across the CWA by late afternoon,
indicating the potential for a few strong to marginally severe wind
gusts with the more robust cells. Storms should diminish from
southeast to northwest beginning after sunset, with storms coming to
an end as late as midnight across the far southwest TXPH and the
western South Plains.

Tomorrow`s high temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper
90s-- slightly above average-- as 500mb heights rise through the
afternoon and subsidence increases aloft. While the environment is
less favorable overall for precipitation tomorrow, there is a
possibility for convective initiation Thursday afternoon given a
well-mixed boundary layer and modest CAPE values in the 800-1200
J/kg range. However, confidence in both the probability and coverage
of precipitation is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Upper level ridging centered over the Four Corners region will
expand slightly eastward during the late week period, resulting in
modest height rises aloft and relatively quiet weather across West
Texas late this week through the first half of the weekend. Despite
the associated increasing subsidence and overall drying aloft, layer
thicknesses are progged to remain fairly subdued as the core of the
ridge stays to our northwest. Temperatures will therefore only rise
a few degrees during this period, with Friday likely the warmest day
of the upcoming week as highs reach into the mid 90s to near 100
degrees. The pattern then becomes a bit more interesting during the
second half of the weekend into early next week as a broad inverted
mid/upper level trough slowly translates northwestward over the Rio
Grande Valley into the Big Bend region. This will suppress the upper
ridge further to our northwest while also pulling a more notable
plume of midlevel moisture back northward into our area, resulting
in increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures Sunday
through early next week. At the moment, the northwestward
progression of this wave looks slow enough to keep our area dry
through at least Tuesday. But, shower and storm chances return to
most of the region during the middle of next week as the upper wave
lifts further northward and attempts to phase with broader troughing
to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of
this TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop across the region this evening, however once the
sunsets this activity should dissipate. There remains low
confidence on if any of this activity will directly impact a
terminal, but if one does gusty and erratic winds and brief drops
in visibility due to heavy rainfall will be possible. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may be possible tomorrow afternoon as
well.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...58