271
FXUS64 KLUB 111731
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

All quiet this morning across West Texas with just some remnant
convective high clouds dissipating over the region. Only change in
weather pattern is an expansion of Nevada-centered ridge eastward
across Texas today. This will result in increasing heights and
slightly warmer temperatures over Wednesday`s highs, which
overperformed NBM numbers by a few degrees. Still, NBM guidance of
highs into the mid 90s on the caprock and near 100 off look good and
did not make any adjustments.

With high pressure building overhead expect less convection than on
Wednesday, but convective temperatures should be reached once again
and see no reason why isolated, pulse-type thunderstorms won`t
develop in the late afternoon/early evening time frame. Various CAMs
suggest this possibility as well so have shotgunned isolated storms
across the domain. Even though storms looked to be relatively short-
lived, there is enough DCAPE progged once again for some concern for
marginally severe wind gusts as well as heavy rainfall due to slow
storm movement/propagation.

Outside of these few concerns, the far majority of the region will
experience a very nice, typically hot, July day with light wind once
again. Any storms that development should give it up shortly after
sunset, if not before, resulting in a pleasant evening with warm
lows by sunrise Friday of 65-70 on the caprock and 70-75 off. JW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The forecast for the extended period remains on track with little
change necessitated with this package. At the beginning of the
period, the mid/upper-level pattern will feature an amplifying,
subtropical ridge that will drift eastward towards the Four Corners
region. The slow-moving, positively-tilted trough over the southern
Great Plains will continue to dampen in amplitude as it lifts
poleward following the expansion of the subtropical ridging over the
western Atlantic Basin. High-level flow will become confluent on the
backside of the attenuating trough, with a well-defined subsidence
layer advecting overhead by the afternoon hours Friday.

At the surface, cyclogenesis will persist across eastern Colorado
and beneath the eastern tranche of the ridge to the west, resulting
in diurnally-driven troughing developing on Friday afternoon. Winds
will back from southwest-to-south-southeast throughout the day as
the surface trough sharpens to the south of the lee cyclone amidst a
deeply-mixed boundary-layer. High temperatures were raised a few
degrees to align with the 11/00Z statistical guidance, with high
temperatures reaching the century mark across the Rolling Plains
while remaining in the middle 90s on the Caprock Escarpment. The
arrival of the strong subsidence layer aloft will eliminate the
potential for any afternoon thunderstorms.

Persistence forecasting leads to a similar forecast throughout the
weekend with doldrum-like conditions expected this weekend into
early next week as the subtropical ridges over the Rocky Mountains
and western Atlantic Basin begin to phase, shifting the jet stream
farther poleward. The upper air pattern across the region will
remain deamplified by the middle of next week; however, global NWP
guidance is indicating a weak PV anomaly or perhaps a barotropic low
to rotate into the southern Rocky Mountains/Great Plains towards the
latter half of the forecast period. The presence of either one of
these features aloft should lead to the return of thunderstorm
chances area-wide by the middle of next week, and the blended PoPs
continue to be maintained in the D6-D8 (Tuesday-Thursday) window.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR expected to continue through this TAF period. Isolated TS will
likely develop this afternoon and persist through this evening,
particularly east of LBB/PVW and near CDS. Coverage of convection
will remain very limited and will therefore omit TAF mention at
this time. Nevertheless, expect gusty/erratic winds in the
vicinity of any convection this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30