Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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878 FXUS64 KLUB 112337 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The synoptic pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours as upper level ridging remains centered over the desert southwest and weak northerly flow aloft continues over West Texas. Rapid surface warming and some residual midlevel moisture has once again resulted in the development of a cumulus field over much of the region early this afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop and persist through evening as the cumulus field gradually deepens. However, overall coverage will be less than observed over the past few days given a slightly drier atmosphere and modest mid/upper level height rises. Still, a few strong wind gusts and brief downpours may occur through the evening before convection dissipates after sunset, with quiet and seasonably mild weather expected overnight. The upper ridge will shift a bit farther eastward on Friday, with the associated increase in subsidence resulting in a dry day across our area. Increased layer thicknesses will result in a slight warm up as well, with high temperatures Friday afternoon reaching the mid/upper 90s on the Caprock with low 100s east of the escarpment. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A pleasant weekend is expected under a large upper ridge centered over the Mountain West, with mostly sunny skies, generally light winds and highs in the mid 90s. Weak retrograding shortwaves moving through Monday and Tuesday may help trigger a few isolated storms in the afternoon/evening hours aided by the building instability during the day. Mid-to-late week continues to look the most favorable for storm chances. A large upper low over the James Bay region in Canada will extend a trough all the way into our area. Subsequently a surface front will move through sometime Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring shift the low-level flow to easterly and thus allow for increase moisture advection into the region, hence the increased PoPs. However, it remains too early to determine any specific details. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms near CDS will continue to dissipate early this evening with dry conditions prevailing through the night. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. Isolated showers and storms may develop primarily south of LBB tomorrow afternoon but the TAF sites should remain dry. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...58